Giannis Antetokounmpo is making a convincing push in the NBA MVP odds as of late, coming off of a 30-point, 19-rebound performance on Sunday against the Thunder. The Milwaukee Bucks (46-25) are looking to lock in the Eastern Conference's second seed, currently possessing a 2.5-game lead with just 11 games to go.
On Tuesday they will host the Los Angeles Lakers (39-32), who are in an entirely different kind of playoff push. Currently in possession of the Western Conference's ninth seed, the Lakers are looking to climb to sixth (three games back) but also trying to ensure they don't slip out of the play-in entirely (three games ahead). However, they will try to do so on Monday without Lebron James, who has been ruled out for tonight's contest.
Can the Lebron-less Lakers put up a fight as NBA odds underdogs against the Bucks? Or will Giannis continue on with his dominant March?
Continue reading for free NBA picks and predictions for the Lakers vs. Bucks matchup on Tuesday, March 26.
Lakers vs Bucks predictions
My best bet: Bucks -9 (-110 at FanDuel)
Many will look at Lebron James' absence tonight as a death sentence for the Los Angeles Lakers' chances, but that is actually far from the case. In fact, the last time Lebron missed a game, the Lakers snuck out a 123-122 win earlier this month against the Milwaukee Bucks.
And it's not just that one-off result: the Lakers have now won three of their last four without Lebron and eight of their last 12, spanning to the end of last year. But today's Milwaukee may be in a bit different form than the Milwaukee that lost to the shorthanded Lakers earlier this month.
They have since won five of their last seven, including a convincing 25-point win against the Thunder. Outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo (30 points, 19 rebounds), their depth was the highlight of that game with seven players scoring 10 or more points. And the won that game by a monstrous margin despite Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton combining for just 22 points.
But again, their depth didn't prevent their loss to the Lakers earlier this month. Given that fact, Milwaukee laying nearly double-digit points is a lot to chew on. But even on that front, Milwaukee has been hot.
They have now covered in 11 of their last 15 games and during that stretch they have covered every spread but one as favorites of more than four points (5-1 ATS). They've also won six straight at home now and by an average margin of 16.2 points.
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Lakers vs Bucks same-game parlay
Bucks -9.5
Anthony Davis Over 24.5 points
D'Angelo Russell Under 20.5 points
When building out a same-game parlay for tonight's game, it obviously makes a lot of sense to look at who on the Lakers sees the largest discrepancies when Lebron sits.
The most obvious player to look towards is Anthony Davis, who tangibly sees a bump in scoring when he is without Lebron. His point total for tonight sits at 24.5, a mark we may be able to take advantage of.
In his last 13 games without James, Davis has scored 25+ points in all but three of them and he also has managed to do it in three of his last four in that split.
One player who does not see as tangible of a bump, however, is D'Angelo Russell. His point total for tonight sits at an inflated 20.5, a mark he has hit just six times in the 18 games he has played without Lebron since joining the Lakers in February of last year.
Interestingly enough, he has just hit it once in his last four games without Lebron, and that game was the last matchup against the Bucks during which he dropped a monstrous 44 points.
Needless to say, a heavily defensive-minded coach like Doc Rivers is not going to brush off that performance and is likely to hone in on some methods to keep Russell from being anywhere near as effective.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lakers vs Bucks odds and trends
Lakers vs Bucks opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +9 | Milwaukee -9
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +319 | Milwaukee -381
- Over/Under: Over 232 (-110) | Under 232 (-110)
Lakers vs. Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Lakers are 33-39 against the spread this year, the eight-worst cover rate (45.8%) this year.
- The Bucks are just a touch worse than the Lakers against the spread this year, having gone 32-38-1 for a 45.7% cover rate.
- Los Angeles has gone 39-32-1 towards the Over this year, good for the second-highest rate of Overs this year at 54.9%. On the road that clip is even higher, having gone 20-12 (62.5%) that way.
- The Bucks have had a bit more of a balanced record on totals this year, having gone 36-34-1 towards the Under this year (51.4%). However, at home they have gone 20-15 to the Over, good for the fifth-highest rate of Overs (57.1%) in that split.
Lakers vs. Bucks betting trend to know
Milwaukee has gone Over the total in five of its last eight overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Bucks.
Lakers vs Bucks game info
| Location: | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 26, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
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