Jazz vs Pelicans Picks: NBA's Best ATS, Over Teams Meet

The NBA betting board on Monday features a seven-game slate, including a matchup between the NBA-best Utah Jazz and the New Orleans Pelicans.

After losing for the second time in four contests following a nine-game winning streak, the Jazz hung 124 points on the Orlando Magic in a 15-point victory on Saturday. Now, as they look to build a new streak, they'll get a Pelicans team that's one of the worst defensive groups in the league.

Check out our best free picks and predictions for Jazz vs. Pelicans on March 1 at 8:00 p.m. ET.

Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans betting preview

Injuries

Jazz:  Mike Conley G (Questionable).
Pelicans: J.J. Redick G (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Utah is 22-4 ATS in its last 26 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Pelicans.

NBA sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

As noted above, Utah is a ridiculous 22-4 ATS in its last 26 games and a scorching 23-3 SU over that stretch. FanDuel pegged the Jazz 6.5-point chalk at Sunday night's outset, reached -7.5 a couple of times today, then reverted back to -6.5, where the number rests about 30 minutes before the 8 p.m. ET tipoff. Ticket count is just beyond 2/1 and money just shy of 2/1 on the Jazz. The total opened at 234.5 and stretched to 237, with 61 percent of bets/72 percent of cash on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Against the spread (ATS) pick

By now, you've probably heard the Jazz are having a historically great season when it comes to covering the spread. At 25-9 ATS, Utah has covered in an NBA-high 73.5 percent of its contests, which includes an 18-2 start (the second-best 20-game stretch over the last 30 years) and a run of 11 consecutive at one point.

Utah is a two-way juggernaut that hasn't shown signs of slowing down, powered on a well-rounded offensive attack led by All-Star Donovan Mitchell's career-high 24.5 points a game and anchored on the other end by two-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. Whether home or away, favorite or underdog, the Jazz are a problem for the rest of the league.

New Orleans, meanwhile, can put up points in a hurry but tends to give it right back as one of the league's weakest units at getting stops. The poor defensive play has failed the Pelicans more often than not, taking away from their prolific scoring and leading to a 14-19 mark SU and ATS. That recipe won't play against a Jazz team that can also get buckets and defends as well as nearly any team in the NBA.

Utah has covered spreads of -6.5 and -7.5 against the Pelicans already this season and is a good bet to improve to 3-0 in that department. 

PREDICTION: Jazz -6.5 (-110)

Over/Under pick

These are the two top-scoring teams in the Western Conference. Both shoot well and are strong on the glass. The Jazz rank first in 3-pointers made per game, while the Pelicans are No. 1 in offensive rebounds. But the similarities stop there, with defense being the main factor that separates these two in the standings.

New Orleans is scoring 115.5 points per game, which is tied for fourth in the NBA and right behind the Jazz, who are third. The six teams ahead of the Pelicans in offensive efficiency and the two directly behind them are all either title contenders or teams that could make deep playoff runs, while New Orleans is likely to be on the outside of the postseason picture. It has its defense to blame for that, as the Pels surrender the same amount of points they score and rank second-last in the NBA in defensive efficiency—behind only the putrid Sacramento Kings.

The Pelicans' last 10 games have been a perfect snapshot of what their season has been like: They scored 122.7 points per game on 50.4 percent shooting from the field and surrendered 124.5 on 52.2 percent shooting, going 9-1 O/U over that stretch but leading to a 3-7 record.

Utah, on the other hand, scored 120.9 points per contest and gave up 108.4 over its last 10-game stretch, resulting in an 8-2 record. The Jazz are 16-17-1 O/U on the season, but for a team that scores 116.2 points per game, it should have no problem driving up the total versus a Pelicans club that has allowed 120-plus points in six of its last 10.

New Orleans is an NBA-best 24-9 O/U on the season and should score points even against the Jazz's strong defense. Look for Utah to match them and then some, exploiting the Pelicans' inferior defense and leading to a high-scoring game in the Big Easy, like the last time these two met and combined for 247 points.

PREDICTION: Over 235 (-110)

Player prop pick

The Jazz are dangerous from beyond the arc and the Pelicans can't defend the outside shot, so we're expecting the 3-ball to be one of the keys to a Utah victory tonight. 

Mitchell should punish this soft Pelicans defense, with plenty of his scoring coming from long range. The Jazz's leading scorer ranks Top 10 in the NBA in 3-point attempts per game (8.6) and is drilling them at a career-best clip. Against a New Orleans team that's allowing the most 3-pointers per game and surrenders an average of 40 a contest (the third-highest rate), we'd expect Utah's shooters to be lining up from deep all night. 

The Jazz take and make the most 3-pointers per game and launched a total of 86 during the two previous times these teams played, converting on 44 percent of them. Mitchell hit 4-of-7 and 6-of-8 shots from deep during those wins and this juicy matchup certainly provides him with an opportunity to do similar damage this time around. Getting his 3-point prop at good value is icing on the cake.

PREDICTION: Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 Made 3-Pointers (+100)

Jazz vs Pelicans betting card

• Jazz -6.5 (-110)
• Over 235 (-110)
• Mitchell Over 3.5 Made 3-Pointers (+100)

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