Thursday's two-game NBA slate tips off with the Orlando Magic vs. Phoenix Suns at 9 p.m. ET and wraps up with the Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors at 10 p.m. ET.
Our NBA moneyline picks cover every game in tipoff order and are priced with Polymarket probabilities.
The Phoenix Suns (53%) are the heaviest favorites on the board, while the Miami Heat (39%) are our longest shot on Nov. 5.
Find more analysis on our NBA picks and NBA player prop projections pages.
NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 5
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Magic
WarriorsPercentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 5
Magic vs Suns: 
Suns
I price the Phoenix Suns closer to a 58% favorite, making them an attractive buy at 53%, even on the second night of a back-to-back.
Phoenix's biggest weakness is its lack of a true point guard to consistently generate efficient half-court offense, placing much of the playmaking burden on Devin Booker, who isn't a natural point guard.
However, with Jalen Suggs out of the lineup, Booker's ability to create offense becomes less of a concern in this particular matchup.
Heat vs Warriors: 
Heat
I'm throwing a warning on this trade because I price the Miami Heat closer to a 42% underdog on the second night of a back-to-back, assuming none of their players are load-managed.
Giannis Antetokounmpo entered Wednesday's game with an injury designation but is expected to play. There's little reason to believe he'd sit out Thursday, but the scheduling spot and his injury designation heading into Wednesday's game are enough to warrant some caution.
The edge is already fairly thin, and my projection assumes Antetokounmpo plays 33 minutes, so there's not much room for unexpected news or a potential minutes restriction.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Suns Heat
The only two teams not playing Wednesday, the Orlando Magic and Golden State Warriors, are getting a little too much respect from the market on Thursday, so I'm fading both in our combo play.
I've already accounted for the scheduling spot in my projections for the Suns and Heat, and both are showing value against their current market prices.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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