The Memphis Grizzlies have mostly overachieved again this season, holding serve as playoff contenders throughout numerous key injuries in a tougher Western Conference.
Along the way, they've also solidified themselves as one of the NBA's best ATS bets at 34-20, good for second league-wide.
But they face a stiff challenge tonight against a Milwaukee Bucks squad that has Giannis Antetokounmpo back and is a fairly bad matchup for Memphis.
Who has the edge for NBA betting? Find out with Grizzlies vs. Bucks picks and predictions for Saturday, April 17.
Grizzlies vs Bucks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonMilwaukee hit the DraftKings odds board at -8.5 Friday night, went to -9 overnight, and the number spent much of today bouncing between -8.5 and -8. As of 6 p.m. ET, the line is Bucks -8, with 57 percent of bets and 53 percent of dollars on Milwaukee. The total opened at 237, bottomed out at 236.5, peaked at 238 and is now at 237.5, with 69 percent of bets/70 percent of cash on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameGrizzlies at Bucks betting preview
Injuries
Grizzlies: De'Anthony Melton SG (Questionable), Brandon Clarke PF (Questionable), Justise Winslow SF (Out).
Bucks: Donte DiVincenzo PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Over is 6-1 in Grizzlies' last seven games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Bucks.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
This is going to be a tough game for Memphis on multiple levels.
It starts at the point, where Ja Morant will have to deal with Jrue Holiday being in his jersey the entire night. Holiday is a nightmare defensive matchup for Morant, exactly the kind of high-energy pitbull that will stay in front of the Grizz PG and prevent the penetration that so much of their offense thrives on.
Memphis also relies heavily on sound ball movement around the perimeter, which will be tougher with Holiday smothering the point of attack and good, long defenders like Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton in the passing lanes.
Memphis has two main things going for it in this matchup. The first is depth, with a very capable supporting cast that can help offset the potential absences of Brandon Clarke and De'Anthony Melton, as well as negate potential fatigue on the second night of a back-to-back. With several guys who can step into those minutes seamlessly and relieve tired legs, the losses won't be as damaging.
The Grizzlies will also likely win the battle of the boards. With Jonas Valanciunas simply feasting on the glass of late (14.25 rpg in March and April), Giannis may be forced to exert some extra rebounding effort so poor Brook Lopez (5.1 rpg) isn't eaten alive.
Memphis is unlikely to win this game, between the bad matchup and their recent penchant for choking down the stretch. But the spread is pretty damn big here, and we like them to keep things within eight points.
PREDICTION: Memphis +8.0 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The 236.5 total is fairly intimidating — it's by far the biggest on the NBA betting board tonight. But there's plenty of reason to believe it's attainable.
The Bucks' exploits on offense need little introduction at this point. They remain the NBA's highest-scoring team at 119.2 ppg, while conceding a below-average 112.7 ppg.
Memphis has not-so-quietly also become a scoring juggernaut, averaging 120.5 ppg over their past nine contests. The Grizz have topped this total four times in their past six games, without the benefit of playing against the league's highest-scoring squad.
Milwaukee sees totals in the 230s fairly regularly, and with both these teams playing at Top-10 paces, the points could pile up quickly.
PREDICTION: Over 236.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
As mentioned above, Valanciunas has been on an utter rebounding tear of late, and tonight gets to tangle on the glass with one of the NBA's worst-rebounding centers.
Given that JV has averaged over 14 boards the past six weeks and gets a Charmin-soft matchup in what will be a fairly fast-paced game (read: more shot attempts), he's a good bet to rack up plenty of rebounds.
His double-double prop is juiced horrifically (-535), so instead let's tab Jonas to top a reasonable rebounds total.
PREDICTION: Jonas Valanciunas Over 12.5 rebounds (-123)
Grizzlies vs Bucks betting card
- Memphis +8.0 (-110)
- Over 236.5 (-110)
- Jonas Valanciunas Over 12.5 rebounds (-123)
Picks made on 04/17/2021 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
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