Golden State and Boston have plenty in common as they prepare to face off Saturday night at TD Garden – but the Warriors would likely be happy to trade place with the Celtics at this point in the season.
Both teams ride winning streaks into their marquee weekend matchup, with the Warriors having reeled off four straight victories and the Celtics on a five-game run. Yet, while the Celtics have used their hot stretch to challenge Atlanta for fourth place in the Eastern Conference, all the Warriors have managed to do is get to .500 – still not good enough for a Top-8 spot in the West.
These are our favorite NBA free picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Celtics on April 17.
Warriors vs Celtics odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDraftKings opened Boston as 4.5-point chalk and got to -5 a couple of times, but the line is down to -4 as of 5:45 p.m. ET. The Celtics are taking 61 percent of tickets and 69 percent of cash on the spread. The total moved from 227.5 to 229 to 228.5, with 64 percent of tickets/77 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameWarriors at Celtics betting preview
Injuries
Warriors: SF Kelly Oubre Jr. (Questionable), PF Eric Paschall (Out)
Celtics: SG Evan Fournier (Out), PF Robert Williams (Out)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Boston is 6-2 ATS in the previous eight head-to-head meetings. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Celtics.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Boston is finally looking like the team betting experts thought they were heading into the season, slowly climbing into contention for home-court advantage through at least the first round of the East playoffs. They return home on the heels of a perfect three-game road trip, which included convincing wins over the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers.
Golden State has looked good as well, climbing back to even for the season with home wins over Houston and Denver and road triumphs over Oklahoma City and Cleveland. Stephen Curry has been the catalyst with a 39.0 ppg scoring average in April, but the losses of James Wiseman at center and Kelly Oubre at forward leave the Warriors thin for this matchup.
The Celtics have the more talented starting lineup and deeper bench, and the Warriors remain one of the worst road teams of any playoff contender at 11-18 SU. Look for Boston to keep the good times rolling here.
PREDICTION: Celtics -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
As great as Curry has been, both this month and throughout the season, the Warriors are still one of the most reliable Under options in the league. Golden State comes in at 23-32-1 O/U for the year and have cashed the Under in 12 of their previous 16 games away from Chase Center.
That trend coincides with a stronger commitment to defense on the part of the Celtics, who have gone a sizzling 8-3 to the Under in their past 11 games as they continue their push toward a Top-4 seed. They've held their last eight opponents to an average of 105.5 points, a total that would be even lower if you remove a 145-136 shootout win over the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Celtics might not be able to keep Curry from scoring 30+ for a 10th consecutive game, but they should be able to do enough against the rest of the Golden State roster to keep this one below the number.
PREDICTION: Under 228 (-110)
Player prop pick
To say that Curry has been the Golden State offense this month is actually an understatement. The superstar guard has been responsible for more than half of the team's made 3-pointers, made free throws, and attempted free throws so far in April while boasting a 34.8-percent usage rate that ranks fourth in the NBA over that span.
Curry's point prop for this game is ambitious – but with the way he has been playing, it's still too low.
PREDICTION: Steph Curry Over 32.5 Points (-118)
Warriors vs Celtics betting card
- Celtics -4.5 (-110)
- Under 228 (-110)
- Steph Curry Over 32.5 Points (-118)
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