Bucks vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions: Bane of the Bucks' Existence

The current No. 2 seeds from each conference square off Saturday night as the Memphis Grizzlies host the Milwaukee Bucks in a clash of woodland creatures whose bite is worse than their bark. 

Both these squads are rolling, at 8-2 straight up in their past 10 games, but injuries to both sides are taking some of the punch out of this marquee matchup.

Find out who can pull off a short-handed cover with our Bucks vs. Grizzlies NBA picks and predictions for Saturday, March 26. 

Bucks vs Grizzlies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Memphis opened at -1.5 and has seen movement in all direction, sitting at -1 at most books as of Saturday morning. The total opened through a huge range from 225.5 all the way up to 233.5, with most books sitting around the latter number as of writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Bucks vs Grizzlies predictions

• Prediction: Memphis -1 (-105)
• Prediction: Over 233.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Bane Over 20.5 points (-108)

Predictions made on 3/26/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Bucks vs Grizzlies game info

• Location: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
• Date: Saturday, March 26, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports South East, Bally Sports Wisconsin

Bucks vs Grizzlies betting preview

Key injuries

Bucks: Jrue Holiday PG (Out), Giannis Antetokounmpo PF (Questionable), Khris Middleton SF (Questionable).
Grizzlies: Ja Morant PG (Out), Brandon Clarke PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Grizzlies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Grizzlies.

Bucks vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

It's a question many people are asking around the NBA right now: Just how high is this Memphis team's ceiling without Ja Morant? 

After withstanding an all-out offensive barrage from the likes of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant Wednesday night, Memphis turned right around and destroyed hapless Indiana a night later.  Depending on who suits up tonight for Milwaukee, we'll get a litmus test of one of those extremes.

Star PG Jrue Holiday is already out tonight, with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton possibly joining him. The uncertainty makes this a tough game to handicap, but even the slightest doubt in Giannis' status forces our hand with the Grizzlies. 

Memphis is rolling right now, even without Morant. Its deep rotation is chock full of two-way guys who play with great chemistry and understand their roles. The Grizzlies' NBA-leading net rating and record without Morant are a testament to just how thorough their roster is.

Let's be real here: as great as Bobby Portis is, he and former Grizzly Grayson Allen are not messing with Memphis right now.  Even Brook Lopez — likely Milwaukee's best player if the Big 3 sit — is still ramping himself up to full-time minutes. 

The line still sitting close to a pick 'em suggests that we'll likely see Giannis and/or Middleton suit up, which makes this a lot more of a fair fight and gives the Bucks at least a lead gun on offense to keep up with a Grizzlies team scoring 123.8 ppg over its last 10 games.

But the Bucks' defense has slipped noticeably in the season's second half, and they're already down one of the NBA's best perimeter defenders, and possibly one of the DPOY odds leaders too. They're not stopping this runaway freight train of a Grizzlies offense. 

If Giannis suits up, he'll give the Bucks a chance, but with Middleton also in the balance, there are just too many outcomes where Milwaukee is down multiple stars, in which case Memphis would figure to have an edge. So, in the midst of uncertainty, our advice is to back them. 

Prediction: Memphis -1 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

We'll be honest, we don't like this total given the injury uncertainty. 

If Giannis and Middleton play, then these are two of the NBA's best offenses, both playing at a Top-10 pace and scoring a combined 247.4 points per over their last 10 games.

If they sit, Milwaukee will be completely punchless on offense and have to bleed more of the shot clock for quality looks, and surely convert fewer of them without two of the NBA's most efficient volume scorers. 

Splitting the difference is tough, especially when the Grizzlies are apt to pushing the issue and tempo. Thus, if forced, we'd take the Over, with the Grizzlies 6-3 against this number over their past nine games, having mostly faced some pretty sad offenses (the Pacers and Rockets twice each, Knicks, Thunder,  and Hawks minus Trae Young).

But, again, make sure you get word on the Bucks' stars instead of blindly betting this.

Prediction: Over 233.5 (-110)

Best bet

Desmond Bane has found his groove as Memphis' lead gun with Morant out. Bane's averaging 25.6 ppg over the last three Morant absences and is 7-1 against tonight's points total of 20.5 in his last eight starts alongside Tyus Jones. 

Given that Holiday won't be around to pester him, and Middleton might not be either, we don't like the odds of Grayson Allen and Wesley Matthews keeping Bane in check when he's clearly feeling himself.

The only real threat to this total is Dillon Brooks hijacking the proceedings, but Bane's been steadily efficient even absorbing Brooks' usage. Brooks will back down to no one for touches, but this game will have enough of them to go around. 

These teams project to play fast and loose, and Memphis is a volatile catalyst in those matchups, forcing plenty of turnovers and running whenever it can. Count of lots and back-and-forth play, and for the Grizzlies' leading (active) scorer to impact it. 

Pick: Desmond Bane Over 20.5 points (-108)

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