All 30 NBA teams take the floor Monday, Nov. 2, with Election Day 2026 serving as a leaguewide off day Tuesday.
My NBA against the spread picks break down every matchup on the 15-game slate, with several underdogs and short favorites offering intriguing value.
Check out more NBA picks for analysis across the Association.
NBA against the spread picks: Nov. 2
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Thunder Cavaliers |
+3.5 49% |
 Bulls 76ers |
+10.5 51% |
 Wizards Magic |
+2.5 49% |
 Nets Knicks |
+14.5 50% |
 Hawks Pacers |
-9.5 49% |
 Pistons Hornets |
-5.5 52% |
 Bucks Timberwolves |
+11.5 50% |
 Kings Mavericks |
+10.5 49% |
 Pelicans Grizzlies |
+5.5 52% |
 Jazz Spurs |
-15.5 53% |
 Celtics Rockets |
-5.5 52% |
 Trail Blazers Nuggets |
+3.5 48% |
 Raptors Clippers |
-5.5 50% |
 Suns Warriors |
-3.5 48% |
 Heat Lakers |
+1.5 49% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA ATS picks: Nov. 2
Thunder vs Cavaliers (-3.5):
In its previous game, Oklahoma City closed as a 2.5-point road underdog against the Houston Rockets, and Cleveland is worse than Houston on a neutral floor.
The Thunder upset the full-strength Cavs 121-113 as 3.5-point home underdogs without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last season.
Bulls vs 76ers (-10.5):
Chicago has a rest advantage, and last season, the Bulls were 9-5 against the spread (ATS) with a +5.3 spread differential in those spots. The market is backing them as well since Philadelphia opened as 11.5-point favorites.
Wizards vs Magic (-2.5):
Orlando is on the second leg of a back-to-back and is missing two starters, point guard Jalen Suggs and forward Paolo Banchero, as well as backup guard Anthony Black, who replaced Suggs in the starting lineup when he got hurt.
Washington big man Anthony Davis is the best player on the floor, and No. 1 overall pick A.J. Dybantsa has looked terrific in his first two games.
Nets vs Knicks (-14.5):
I was higher on Brooklyn than the market entering the season, and the Nets are 3-3 ATS, while New York is just 1-5 ATS. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Knicks are 29th in half-court offensive efficiency and look to have a "championship hangover."
Hawks vs Pacers (+9.5):
This is a "scheduled loss" for Indiana, playing the second night of a back-to-back after losing to the Nets 98-90 on Sunday.
The Pacers aren't playing any starters from their opening-day roster, and Atlanta was an NBA-best 10-3 ATS with a rest advantage last season.
Pistons vs Hornets (+5.5):
Detroit has won and covered four straight against Charlotte, including a 97-89 home win as 7.5-point favorites last week. The Pistons lead the Association in defensive rating and the Hornets have the worst offensive rating in the NBA.
Bucks vs Timberwolves (-11.5):
Minnesota shouldn't be a double-digit favorite over any healthy NBA team without All-Star Anthony Edwards. Milwaukee has a better offensive shot profile, per Cleaning the Glass.
The Bucks also have better wide-open 3-point attempt rates on both ends of the floor, and most regular-season NBA games are decided by who makes more threes.
Kings vs Mavericks (-10.5):
I'm just going to buy low on Sacramento and sell high on Dallas, which might not have Kyrie Irving, who is questionable on the injury report at the time of writing.
The Kings have lost four straight games by 11 or more points, and the Mavs have covered and won three consecutive games as underdogs.
Pelicans vs Grizzlies (-5.5):
New Orleans is better than its record, and Memphis is worse. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Pelicans have -1.3 expected wins based on their efficiency differential, while the Grizzlies have 1.0.
NOLA has the best shot location in the Association, and Memphis ranks 28th.
Jazz vs Spurs (-15.5):
I'm zigzagging on the Spurs failing to cover as 13.5-point road favorites in a 117-111 overtime win over Utah on Wednesday. That was San Antonio's second game of a back-to-back, and the flip in home-court advantage should be worth at least four points.
Celtics vs Rockets (-5.5):
Houston has a rest edge with Boston playing a second straight road game in as many days. More importantly, the Rockets have a strength-on-weakness edge on the boards: Houston is third in offensive rebounding rate and the Celtics rank 27th in defensive rebounding rate.
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets (-3.5):
Portland bigs Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams III form one of the NBA's best defensive frontcourts and can make life difficult for Nikola Jokic.
Speaking of which, the Trail Blazers have the best defensive shot profile in the Association because they force opponents into the highest volume of midrange jumpers, which is the most inefficient shot in basketball.
Raptors vs Clippers (+5.5):
Toronto has two strength-on-weakness edges over the Clippers in ball security and transition. The Raptors have the NBA's best defensive turnover rate (TOV%), while the Clippers have the league's worst offensive TOV%. Toronto leads the NBA in fast-break points per game, while the Clippers rank 29th in fast-break points allowed per game.
Suns vs Warriors (-3.5):
Golden State covered as 9.5-point road underdogs in a 131-122 loss in Phoenix on Oct. 24. Also, despite missing Steph Curry, Brandin Podziemski and Draymond Green, the Warriors outperformed the Suns in three of the "four factors."
Heat vs Lakers (-1.5):
Miami can neutralize one of the Lakers' biggest strengths: getting to the foul line. The Heat are second in defensive FT/FGA rate while the Lakers get to the charity stripe at the highest rate in the NBA.
Plus, this is the second game of a back-to-back for the Lakers, who played a fast-paced game against Toronto on Sunday, and Miami is third in pace this season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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