The shorthanded Oklahoma City Thunder continue their road trip with a visit to the Cleveland Cavaliers as cross-conference teams clash at Rocket Arena on Monday, Nov. 2.
Oklahoma City’s roster has been completely decimated by injuries, and my Thunder vs. Cavaliers predictions expect Cleveland to cover the spread as the small home favorite.
My NBA picks are also calling for Evan Mobley to take advantage of a favorable interior matchup.
TOP PICK
Thunder vs Cavaliers prediction: Cavaliers -3.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers offense is the best in the NBA across the last three games, and it will punish a depleted Oklahoma City Thunder roster, leading to a victory of at least seven points. I’ll trade this spread up to 6.5.
Oklahoma City is losing the war of attrition, and injuries have simply piled up too much for the team to be competitive against Cleveland on the road.
Chet Holmgren was runner-up in the Defensive Player of the Year odds in 2025-26, and Cason Wallace was Second Team All-Defense last season. Both will be out, as will pesky defender Alex Caruso.
With Jalen Williams also sidelined, Oklahoma City is down multiple key playmakers, scorers and floor-spacers, leading to major issues on offense. OKC has scored fewer than 100 points in back-to-back contests.
COVERS INTEL: The shorthanded Thunder lost each of their last two games by 20+ points, marking the first time that’s happened with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the lineup since March 8-9, 2022.
Thunder vs Cavaliers combo
Cleveland’s 121 ppg are second only to the Grizzlies’ 121.2 for most in the Association. The Cavs have posted 120 points in four of their last five games, and I’ll trade this team total up to 119.5.
Without Caruso and Wallace to defend the perimeter, Cleveland will get open looks from three, and the absence of Holmgren exposes a weakness on the interior as OKC tries to limit the Cavs’ double-big lineup of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
Holmgren’s absence means OKC could start Mara alongside Isaiah Hartenstein, even off the bench, the rookie should see 25-30 minutes. Mara has grabbed 6+ boards in two of his last three games, and Cleveland has allowed the 12th-most rebounds to opponents.
I’ll trade this rebounds line up to 6.5.
Thunder vs Cavaliers combo
- Cavaliers -3.5
- Cavaliers team total Over 116.5
- Aday Mara Over 5.5 rebounds
Thunder vs Cavaliers player props
Thunder player prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 points
I’ll trade this scoring line up to 30.5.
With so many of Oklahoma City’s key offensive weapons sidelined, SGA will be leaned on even more heavily for his scoring prowess. The absences of Holmgren, Williams, Caruso and Wallace leave 41.3 ppg up for grabs.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 30+ in only two of six games this season, but he reached that mark in 43 of 68 regular-season contests a season ago.
The reigning MVP has found success against Cleveland, scoring 30 or more in five straight matchups with the Cavaliers, including two straight on the road.
Cavaliers player prop: Evan Mobley Over 16.5 points
Mobley is averaging a career-best 19.7 points, and he’s scored 17+ in five of six games this season.
Over the last three games with Holmgren sidelined, the Thunder rank 26th in Defensive Rating. Mara and Hartenstein will man the frontcourt in Holmgren’s absence, but without the DPOY runner-up, OKC’s interior defense presents a much more favorable matchup for Mobley.
Mobley has cleared 18 points in all three home games, averaging 20.7 ppg. I’ll trade this line up to 18.5.
- Top picks: 4-6, -2.16 units
- Combos: 0-10, -10 units
- Props: 7-11, -3.94 units
Thunder vs Cavaliers odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Thunder +3.5 (48%) | Cavaliers -3.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: Thunder 40% | Cavaliers 61%
- Over/Under: Over 228.5 (51%) | Under 228.5 (50%)
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Thunder vs Cavaliers trend
The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Thunder vs Cavaliers
| Location | Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Monday, Nov. 2, 2026 |
| Tip off | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
Thunder vs Cavaliers latest injuries
Check out our NBA injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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