The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox continue their series in a battle of two southpaws.
Both of these pitchers have been in some elite waters throughout their careers, but one is clearly better at the moment.
My Yankees vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks break down why we like New York to make it two straight over Boston tonight.
Who will win Yankees vs Red Sox today: Yankees (-131)
Max Fried has once again looked like an elite arm. His 1% barrel rate is one of the best in baseball, his expected ERA is among the Top 10%, and with the swing-and-miss stuff down, he’s seemingly finding ways to reinvent himself. I made the fair price -144, so I’m happy backing New York in this spot.
This Boston Red Sox lineup compounds the issues Fried presents: the Red Sox have a 50% ground-ball rate and just 29% hard contact against left-handed pitching this season.
Fried does not need to strike hitters out to dominate. He induces the weakest contact in the game, and Boston is already predisposed to weak contact against lefties.
Red Sox lefty Ranger Suarez's 4.42 expected ERA tells you his 3.22 surface ERA is living on borrowed time, and the Yankees hit lefties quite hard, posting the fourth-highest hard-hit rate against southpaws this season.
COVERS INTEL: Boston's 50% ground-ball rate against left-handed pitching this season is the highest in the American League East. 
Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (+100)
I lean towards the Under, which is always kind of the directional lean with Fried on the mound. However, though I expect Suarez to get hit, he should have enough success to keep this Under.
Suarez's 46% ground-ball rate plays well against the various weak spots in this New York Yankees lineup, which likely means we won’t see many big innings
Ryan McMahon, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jose Caballero have all started this season with around a 50% ground-ball rate, which is particularly problematic in this spot. On the other side, the Red Sox's weak contact against lefties should show up here.
- ML/RL bets: 6-6, -0.08 units
- Over/Under bets: 7-6, +1.0 units
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Yankees +120 | Red Sox -135
- Run line: Yankees +1.5 (-178) | Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Yankees vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have cashed the first five innings (F5) team total Under in 19 of their last 30 home games for +6.15 units and a 16% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Yankees vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Wednesday, April 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video, NESN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (2-1, 2.97 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Ranger Suarez (1-1, 3.22 ERA) |
Yankees vs Red Sox latest injuries
Yankees vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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