MLB Picks

The Mariners rank last in wOBA against lefties, and Tigers southpaw Framber Valdez has pitched a scoreless first in eight of 12 starts despite his 6.75 first-inning ERA checking in way above his 3.60 career mark. This is a tough matchup for the Tigers, too. Seattle righty Bryan Woo has fired four consecutive scoreless opening frames to improve to 10-2 to the NRFI this season, and Detroit has been held without a first-inning run in seven of its past 10 games while ranking 16th in batting average and 15th in xwOBA during the stretch.

Sonny Gray is due for negative regression. His 4.39 expected ERA is nearly a full run and a half higher than his actual ERA. Pulling these metrics down the most is a barrel rate that sits in the bottom 33% of the sport. Judge's absence is felt, but the Yankees still rank first in baseball in both barrel and hard-hit rate, built to expose Gray's contact profile.

Alec Burleson is one of my favorite props on the board tonight against Brady Singer. The Reds right-hander has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters, allowing plenty of hard contact, barrels, and elevated batted balls. Those issues have only worsened recently, with lefties posting massive expected numbers against him. Burleson grades out as the lone elite rated hitter in this matchup on Batters-Box, carrying outstanding arsenal coverage against Singer's pitch mix. He has also been swinging a hot bat against right-handed pitching, producing consistent hard contact and extra-base power. I'm backing Burleson tonight and will also sprinkle some exposure on his home run market.

 With Rangers righty Kumar Rocker pitching a scoreless first in three of his past four starts and holding hitters to an overall .159 batting average, I’m anticipating him taking care of a Cleveland lineup ranked 26th in wOBA against righties in the opening frame. The Guardians have only scored in the first in 27% of their games, too. It’s a similar matchup in the bottom half, too. Cleveland southpaw Parker Messick hasn’t allowed a first-inning run all season while holding opposing hitters to a miniscule .371 OPS. The Rangers rank 28th in wOBA against lefties, too.

The Kansas City Royals are trading at even money on the moneyline, but I make them closer to -115 favorites, so I’m hitting the button on Kansas City Friday. Zebby Matthews is a command-oriented starter who attacks the strike zone and relies heavily on his four-seam fastball. That sets up well for left-handed hitters like Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone, both of whom can do damage against right-handed pitchers who live in the zone. The matchup becomes even more favorable if Bobby Witt Jr. is getting on base ahead of them and creating pressure on the bases. That can disrupt Matthews’ rhythm as he works through the heart of the order. The Royals’ offense has struggled for much of the season, but this looks like a favorable spot for their left-handed bats to support Witt and generate enough offense to get the job done.

Scott owns a 2.63 ERA over the past 30 days despite a 3.75 SIERA and 3.88 xFIP. He is not pitching as well as the results suggest, and a correction is coming. Meanwhile, King has benefited from some batted ball luck. Opponents have hit .247 on balls put in play the last month, noticeably below his career average of .285. Playable to -105.

Corbin Carroll leads the National League in fWAR, so if you’re going to have any chance of slowing down the Arizona Diamondbacks, you need to disrupt their offensive engine at the top of the lineup. Foster Griffin, a left-handed pitcher, is well-positioned to do that against the left-handed-hitting Carroll. Left-handed batters are hitting just .178 with a .624 OPS against Griffin this season, and there’s also a lack of familiarity working in his favor. Griffin has never faced any hitter in this Diamondbacks lineup before, which is typically an advantage for the pitcher. The Washington Nationals are trading as +118 underdogs in this spot, but I make them closer to even money to pull off the win in the desert. That’s why I’m willing to back James Wood and company on the moneyline.