San Diego is a slight market favorite after winning Friday’s opener, but I prefer the New York Yankees as a short underdog behind Carlos Rodón.
The Yankees have the better overall run-prevention profile, a stronger available bullpen and more offensive upside against a Robbie Ray season that has been better by ERA than by underlying metrics.
Here are my Yankees vs. Padres prediction and MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 5.
Who will win Yankees vs Padres today: New York Yankees (48%)
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The New York Yankees are my side against the San Diego Padres. New York’s strength is pitching depth, while San Diego’s weakness is its starting staff. Yankees starters own a 3.33 ERA, compared with 4.34 for Padres starters, and available bullpens will favor the Yankees.
Carlos Rodon has averaged only 4.1 innings over his last five starts, but the Yankees can cover that risk with the better bullpen.
Robbie Ray’s 3.14 ERA is less convincing underneath: his 4.58 expected ERA ranks in the 38th percentile among qualified MLB pitchers. I suspect that his bottom 30 percentile barrel rate and hard-hit rate will loom large against a Bombers offense that has gotten going more over the last two weeks.
I’d play the Yankees to 52% for two units.
COVERS INTEL: Robbie Ray has allowed 20 home runs across 149 innings this season, creating a clear power vulnerability for the Padres.
Yankees vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (51%)
This Under is built around matchup-specific starting pitching.
Rodon has held the current Padres to a .278 wOBA, .207 xBA and .320 xSLG across 78 career plate appearances. Ray’s overall profile is less convincing, with a his previously mentioned underlying metrics, but the Yankees have just a .182 xBA against him over 83 plate appearances. That is a much better matchup for Ray than his season-long numbers suggest.
Rodon’s limited workload is the biggest threat to the Under. However, the relative strength of the Yankees bullpen should be enough to keep even a flimsy Under in tact.
With both lineups facing pitchers who have suppressed this specific group of hitters, I’d play Under 7.5 runs to 53%.
Yankees vs Padres home run prediction: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (13%)
I love Jazz music on a Saturday. The left-handed matchup is not ideal on the surface, but Jazz Chisholm Jr. has hit five homers in 157 plate appearances against lefties this season.
He also brings 19 home runs, a 42.9% hard-hit rate and a 90.8-mph average exit velocity.
Ray’s primary four-seamer and slider have allowed a .426 and a 409 xwOBA.
- ML/RL bets: 49-45, +5.28 units
- Over/Under bets: 55-39, +18.44 units
Yankees vs Padres weather
Temperatures should sit in the upper 70s around first pitch, with mostly cloudy conditions and a chance of showers. There is no major wind advantage expected, so the weather does not move me off the Under.
Yankees vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Yankees 48% | Padres 52%
- Run line: Yankees +1.5 | Padres -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Yankees vs Padres trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 away games (+10.40 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Padres.
How to watch Yankees vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (4-3, 3.20 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Robbie Ray (11-7, 3.14 ERA) |
Yankees vs Padres latest injuries
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