Max Fried is on the mound at Petco Park against a struggling San Diego team, so I'm riding with him as part of tonight's Yankees vs. Padres predictions.
The New York Yankees are narrow 53% favorites on Polymarket, and should be priced closer to 58% against a pitcher susceptible to the long ball — we're taking this value and running with it.
Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Friday, Sept. 4.
Who will win Yankees vs Padres today: Yankees (53%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Walker Buehler has coughed up three long balls across his last two starts and will be in trouble against a New York Yankees team looking to deliver the San Diego Padres their eighth loss in their last 11 games.
The ever-entertaining Jazz Chisholm Jr. will likely be the offensive catalyst tonight — he's 6-for-10 with two homers against Buehler in his career (.356 xBA). On the mound for the pinstripes is Max Fried, who's allowed just three earned runs across his last 21 1/3 innings pitched.
What does this all add up to? A Yankees W.
I'd play this up to 58 cents.
COVERS INTEL: Just how good has Fried been this season? He's rocking career lows in xERA (2.50), xBA (.198), and xSLG (.262). Not bad.
Yankees vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (53%)
Aside from Chisholm, Buehler actually has a nice history against the Yankees, striking them out at a 30% clip while limiting them to a .229 xBA. I just don't see him outdueling Fried in this one, especially since the Padres own just a .691 OPS against lefties.
The trends are on our side in this one, too, as both teams are a top-six Under team in baseball, hitting at a 54% clip or better this season.
Yankees vs Padres home run prediction: Trent Grisham (15%)
Trent Grisham hasn't shown his power stroke in a handful of weeks, but he's in a good spot against Buehler.
Not only does Grisham have two career homers against him, but Buehler has been missing his spots recently, allowing three bombs over his last two starts.
Grisham will look to sit on Buehler's changeup, a pitch he's given up five homers on this season. At 15%, you have to hit the button here — I'm playing this at 0.2 units. Let's fire him up with confidence.
- ML/RL bets: 8-11, -1.75 units
- Over/Under bets: 9-10, -1.32 units
Yankees vs Padres weather
It's a perfect night for baseball in San Diego, with sunny skies and temperatures sitting at 72 degrees Fahrenheit.
Yankees vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Yankees 53% | Padres 48%
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 (39%) | Padres +1.5 (62%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (48%) | Under 7.5 (53%)
Yankees vs Padres trend
The Under is 5-0 in New York's last five interleague games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Padres.
How to watch Yankees vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, Calif. |
| Date | Friday, Sept. 4, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, Padres.TV |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (4-4, 2.80 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Walker Buehler (8-6, 4.66 ERA) |
Yankees vs Padres latest injuries
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