The New York Yankees and Houston Astros begin a weekend series tonight, and a situational angle has provided some value.
My Yankees vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks have us backing the underdog on Friday, April 24.
Who will win Yankees vs Astros today: Astros +1.5 -133
Breaking character here by not being a huge situational bettor, but this one is overwhelming. The New York Yankees are riding their biggest high of the young season, having swept the Boston Red Sox in Fenway.
This was capped by an emotional comeback win in the late innings, too. Now they immediately hit the road to Texas with no rest. It's enough to push me in the direction of the Houston Astros.
Will Warren has been solid this season, supported by an 84th percentile K% and an 85th percentile walk rate. His 3.68 xERA confirms the surface numbers are legit, but he simply isn't the type of arm you should be spotting a run and a half against.
His bottom 25th percentile hard-hit rate looms large against an Astros lineup that is top five in such metrics at home. On the other side, Astros hurler Lance McCullers does one thing very well: get chased. That should play nicely against an already swing-happy Yankees team that's a bit fatigued.
COVERS INTEL: Will Warren's groundball % ranks in the 77th percentile at 50.7%, making him one of the better groundball inducers in the league
Yankees vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 +127
This is an appetizing price given the narratives outlined above. I made the fair even money, so I'll take some Under. This is basically a bet that McCullers' pending negative regression holds off for just a bit longer, and I think it will.
McCullers' 32% chase rate should yield some success, as I mentioned above. Beyond the situational aspect, the Yankees are starting to revert to some of the same things we've seen out of them over the past five years: a lot of swing and miss.
They have now climbed to third overall in the league-wide whiff rate. I'll back McCullers to lean into that and Will Warren to manage the game enough to keep this Under.
- ML/RL bets: 8-6, +1.92 units
- Over/Under bets: 9-6, +3.0 units
Yankees vs Astros odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -144 | Astros +122
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+108) | Astros +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-130) | Under 8.5 (-130)
Yankees vs Astros trend
The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.65 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros.
How to watch Yankees vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Friday, April 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, SCHN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (2-0, 2.49 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Lance McCullers Jr. (1-1, 6.20 ERA) |
Yankees vs Astros latest injuries
Yankees vs Astros weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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