MLB Picks

Aaron Nola might be the biggest pitcher fade on the board, and his Over 2.5 earned run prop is moving for good reason. His numbers fell off a cliff last year, but this season is showing that it wasn't just a one-year blip. The walks are up, and his HR/9 has climbed from 1.35 two seasons ago to 2.01 this year, which is the second-highest mark among qualified starters. He's also giving up more fly balls than ever with a 39.8% groundball rate, and hitters are barreling him on more than 25% of swings, ranking in the bottom 20 among starters. The Dodgers have a great get-right spot today, and there are plenty of bats in that lineup with a ton of history against Nola. THE BAT projects Nola for 3.3 earned runs allowed, the fourth-highest mark among starters on today's slate, with a fair price of -155. However, because he isn't expected to work deep, the Dodgers F5 team total Over 2.5 is a great pivot if the price moves past -125.

My projection lands at 9.6 total runs, so this is a very small edge, but at the plus-money price, I'll go that direction and play it to -105. Neither starter is built to fully shut this down and I'd be suprised if they did. For example, Chandler’s 13% walk rate creates free traffic in Yankee Stadium, while Warren’s recent form leaves the Buccos with a real scoring path. Ultimately, I do not need Pittsburgh to dominate Warren; we just need them to contribute enough. I think there’s plenty of power in the lineup to do that.
 

Toronto can't score coming out of the break, and the offense has been one of the worst in baseball all season, ranking dead last in wOBA, ISO, and runs scored while sitting in the bottom five in nearly every other offensive category. Braydon Fisher will open the game before handing things off to Spencer Miles, who is coming off a six-run outing against the White Sox last Friday. This is a defeated Toronto lineup getting nothing from its biggest bats, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Dalton Varsho, and Kazuma Okamoto combining to hit just .186 over the last two weeks. I can't see how a bullpen game against the Rays — a team that has won seven of the last eight meetings — makes Toronto the favorite. Griffin Jax already faced the Jays once this season and needed just 66 pitches to throw five shutout innings. This is a low point for the Blue Jays, and this is an offense worth fading after scoring just eight runs through five games since the All-Star break.

Ty France stands out as the lone elite rated hitter in this matchup, making him an appealing hits, runs, RBI target against Martin Perez. Across 14 elite rated games this season, France has cleared this prop 57% of the time while homering in nearly 30% of those contests. He also owns strong recent numbers against left handed pitching, posting a .365 BA, .433 OBP, .635 SLG, and 1.068 OPS over his last 60 plate appearances. Perez enters in poor form with a 7.43 ERA, 7.19 xERA, and 1.80 WHIP over his last three starts, making France a strong value at the current price.

Wyatt Langford enters tonight’s matchup against Anthony Kay with another strong opportunity to do damage. The Rangers slugger carries an elite Batters Box rating, surpassing this prop 60% of the time across 25 elite rated games, while covering 86.4% of Kay’s pitch mix. Kay has struggled to limit quality contact against right handed hitters, allowing elevated hard contact and barrel rates over his recent sample sizes. With Langford’s matchup advantages and Kay’s underlying metrics pointing toward regression, the HRR market offers strong value. If the price moves too far, his bases prop at plus money provides a strong alternative.

Standing in the way of a quiet evening is Colin Rea, whose recent outings have featured an alarmingly high WHIP and elevated home run rate. Throwing hittable, middle-middle pitches to a Detroit Tigers lineup primed to bounce back makes a low-scoring affair unlikely.

With Rea vulnerable to hard contact and the Chicago Cubs bats already in a groove, expect early offensive fireworks to push this game over the 7.5 total with ease.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.