MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Alec Bohm is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. This game is predicted to have the 14th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Given Anthony Kay's large platoon split, Alec Bohm will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.

Sonny Gray is due for negative regression. His 4.39 expected ERA is nearly a full run and a half higher than his actual ERA. Pulling these metrics down the most is a barrel rate that sits in the bottom 33% of the sport. Judge's absence is felt, but the Yankees still rank first in baseball in both barrel and hard-hit rate, built to expose Gray's contact profile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Matt Olson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best park in baseball for LHB batting average.. Truist Park has the 4th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which often leads to higher offensive output.

As it relates to his home run talent, Brent Rooker ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brent Rooker is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.6°, Brent Rooker has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 24° figure in the last week's worth of games.. Despite posting a .281 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brent Rooker has had some very poor luck given the .071 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .352.. Sporting a .359 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Brent Rooker grades out in the 89th percentile for offensive ability.

Alec Burleson is one of my favorite props on the board tonight against Brady Singer. The Reds right-hander has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters, allowing plenty of hard contact, barrels, and elevated batted balls. Those issues have only worsened recently, with lefties posting massive expected numbers against him. Burleson grades out as the lone elite rated hitter in this matchup on Batters-Box, carrying outstanding arsenal coverage against Singer's pitch mix. He has also been swinging a hot bat against right-handed pitching, producing consistent hard contact and extra-base power. I'm backing Burleson tonight and will also sprinkle some exposure on his home run market.

The Guardians rank 26th in wOBA against right-handed pitching and are known for suppressing runs better than generating them.

The Rangers rank 28th in wOBA against lefties this season, and have hit .198 vs. left-handed pitching at home. They’ll provide little threat to an in-form Messick.

Playable to -125

For the first time ever, I'm backing Jac Caglianone, and the rookie finds himself in an excellent spot to break out against Zebby Matthews. The Twins right-hander carries some of the weakest pitcher ratings in Batters Box and has struggled to limit hard contact and elevated batted balls, especially against left-handed hitters. Those issues line up perfectly for Caglianone, who has been crushing right-handed pitching with elite hard-hit and barrel rates over his recent sample. His arsenal coverage grades out well against Matthews' pitch mix, and the underlying metrics suggest bigger results are on the horizon. If the hits, runs, and RBI prop isn't available at plus money, I would pivot to over 1.5 total bases and sprinkle the home run as well.

Brandon Sproat's ERA is above 6.00 in no small part because he's walking half the ballpark whenever he pitches (15th percentile in BB%). His 32nd-percentile hard-hit rate will get him into all kinds of trouble in Coors Field, and his bullpen (22nd in xFIP across the past two weeks) will just add gasoline to the fire. 

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Juan Soto will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael King in today's game.. Juan Soto hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

James Wood finds himself back on the card tonight in a favorable matchup against Merrill Kelly. The Diamondbacks right-hander has struggled to keep left-handed hitters on the ground at home, allowing plenty of elevated contact and loud exit velocities. That sets up well for Wood, who has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball against right-handed pitching. Over his recent sample, the Nationals star has produced elite power metrics, including a massive hard-hit rate and barrel percentage. Wood also grades out as one of the top arsenal matches on the slate, making this a prime spot to target his stolen base prop at anything up to -115.