Game 1 between Detroit and Cleveland features the lowest total on the board among all series — and for good reason.
With Tarik Skubal and Gavin Williams set to match wits, my Tigers vs. Guardians predictions expect a very low-scoring contest, especially in the early going. Let’s break down my September 30 MLB picks.
Tigers vs Guardians Game 1 predictions
Who will win Tigers vs Guardians Game 1?
It’s hard to go against the Tigers with ace Tarik Skubal on the mound. He gives everyone fits, but his numbers vs. the Guardians are especially great.
He faced them four times during the regular season and conceded just two earned runs over 28 innings of work. If he can pitch close to that level again, the Tigers won’t need to give him much run support.
Tigers vs Guardians best bet
Under 3.5 F5 (-130)
Tarik Skubal enters postseason play at the top of his game. He's held opponents to one run, or blanked them entirely, in six of his past seven starts. The lone exception came against a mediocre Miami Marlins squad — go figure.
This strong stretch of play featured two games against the Cleveland Guardians. Skubal pitched six innings and gave up just one run in both of those starts.
If Skubal is able to limit the Guardians through five innings once again, the Detroit Tigers will likely be tasked with scoring three runs or more to push this total Over. That’s a very tall order against Gavin Williams.
Like Skubal, he is at the top of his game right now. Williams has allowed two runs or fewer in five straight starts, including back-to-back efforts against the Tigers.
Detroit is not in good form offensively, either. The Tigers sit 25th in average, and 27th in ISO, against right-handed pitchers in September.
This has the makings of a pitchers' duel, so it's unlikely we see much offense out of the gate.
Tigers vs Guardians Game 1 same-game parlay (SGP)
Riley Greene has had a month to forget.
He’s hit just .193 vs. right-handed pitching in September while striking out more than 33% of the time. He’s gone Under his total base line in 10 of his last 13 games, and the quality of pitchers he’ll face in the playoffs should be even higher.
Jose Ramirez excels against left-handed pitching and has a very good track record vs. Skubal. Ramirez has hit .375 and posted a .975 OPS over 32 at bats against Skubal.
He is an elite hitter, has a ton of playoff experience, and is as likely as anybody in this game to make noise offensively.
Tigers vs Guardians SGP
- Under 3.5 F5
- Riley Greene Under 1.5 total bases
- Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases
Tigers vs Guardians home run pick for Game 1
Ramirez has four career playoff homers. While he’s never taken Skubal yard, he has piled up a lot of hits and has a strong history against him.
Tigers vs Guardians Game 1 odds
- Moneyline: Detroit -150 | Cleveland +125
- Run line: Detroit -1.5 (+115) | Cleveland +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-105) | Under 6.5 (-115)
Tigers vs Guardians trend
Jose Ramirez has piled up 15 total bases over his last six games against Detroit. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Guardians.
How to watch Tigers vs Guardians and Game 1 info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Tuesday, September 30, 2025 |
| First pitch | 1:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Tarik Skubal (13-6, 2.21 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Gavin Williams (12-5, 3.06 ERA) |
Tigers vs Guardians latest injuries
Tigers vs Guardians weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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