The New York Yankees hope to go into the postseason with a win (and maybe a divisional crown) when they meet the Baltimore Orioles this afternoon. Meanwhile, the Orioles have nothing to play for except hoping to be spoilers.
I break it all down in my Orioles vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, September 28.
Orioles vs Yankees prediction
Orioles vs Yankees best bet: Yankees -1.5 (+118)
I was a bit stunned to see the price with a projection of around -110. However, I'll happily take it.
Luis Gil takes the mound for the New York Yankees with some mixed results on the year. The ERA has been solid and the overall results fine, but the underlying metrics are concerning. It’s probably the main driving factor in this price. However, I’m willing to overlook it simply because of the outsized advantage on the other end.
We’ve talked about it all year with the Yankees. They have a very direct route to excelling against a very particular pitcher: one who throws a lot of fastballs and one who struggles with hard-hit balls. Given the lineup, this isn’t surprising, and that’s bad news for Baltimore Orioles hurler Kyle Bradish.
His fastball usage isn’t overly high, but it has ticked up lately. More concerning, though, are both a barrel rate and a hard-hit rate near the bottom of the league. This makes him the prototypical pitcher that New York tends to excel against, and I expect them to do just that in a straightforward win today.
Orioles vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
With two shaky pitchers on the mound, this screams slugfest, so I’m grabbing the Over for my same-game parlay. I’ll finish off with Aaron Judge to go deep with the same logic I used for my best bet: he should have every opportunity to tee off against Bradish.
Orioles vs Yankees SGP
- Yankees -1.5
- Over 9
- Aaron Judge to hit a home run
Orioles vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Baltimore -190 | New York +155
- Run line: Baltimore -1.5 (+102) | New York +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Orioles vs Yankees trend
The Orioles have cashed the Under in 86 of their last 146 games (+24.73 units / 15% ROI).. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs Yankees.
How to watch Orioles vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, New York, NY |
| Date | Sunday, September 28, 2025 |
| First pitch | 3:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MASN, YES |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Kyle Bradish (1-1, 2.25 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Luis Gil (4-1, 3.29 ERA) |
Tigers vs Red Sox latest injuries
Tigers vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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