Monday Night Football gives us a mismatch in the trenches as the Denver Broncos host the Cincinnati Bengals as 7.5-point favorites — and for good reason.
Jake Browning has been a turnover machine since taking over for Joe Burrow, throwing five picks and taking four sacks in just six quarters, and as I explain in my Bengals vs. Broncos predictions, that matters.
The Broncos boast a defensive line ranked No. 1 in pressure rate, and my NFL picks for September 29 suggest this is a classic bully spot.
Bengals vs Broncos prediction
Bengals vs Broncos Best bet: Broncos -7.5 (-105)
Jake Browning has taken four sacks and thrown five interceptions in just six-plus quarters since Joe Burrow went down. He’s faced some tough defenses, but Week 4 might be his worst matchup yet — on the road, at altitude, against a Denver Broncos pass rush that’s been dominant.
This game shapes up as the most lopsided OL vs. DL battle of the Week 4 slate, per Brandon Thorn. Denver ranks first in pressure rate and fifth in pass rush win rate, while the Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive line is dead last in pass block win rate and 31st in pressure rate allowed. That’s a brutal setup for a QB who already looks overwhelmed.
On the other side, Denver’s offensive line should have no problem moving the ball against a Bengals run defense that ranks 26th in EPA per rush. The Broncos likely won’t need more than 24 points to cover this spread — and with Cincinnati’s team total sitting at just 17.5, that tracks. THE BLITZ projects this game with a spread of 8.04 and a Bengals total of 17.04.
Injuries aren't the story here — it's simply a bad matchup for Browning. He’s consistently playing behind the sticks, Chase Brown hasn’t helped (averaging just 2.0 yards per carry on 47 attempts), and Ja’Marr Chase has to deal with Patrick Surtain on the outside.
This doesn't feel like a spot for a backdoor cover. Browning is making too many mistakes, and Denver’s defense has the pieces to take advantage. I like Browning for 2+ interceptions at +250 or better, but there’s also a non-zero chance he doesn’t finish the game. If things spiral, Brett Rypien is waiting in the wings.
From a market perspective, I think this is a spot where Denver trends upward — and Cincinnati continues its slide.
Bengals vs Broncos MNF same-game parlay
The Broncos will be running with the lead from start to finish, and JK Dobbins is the back to get it down this week. Sean Payton's backfields can be messy at times, but it was Dobbins handling a season-high snap share last week in neutral game script, and he has 75% of the team's RB carries this year while also having a role in the passing game.
Just last week, Jordan Mason took 16 carries for 116 rushing yards and two scores despite Minnesota going up 34-3 at halftime. The Broncos will dominate the time of possession Monday night, and if Dobbins stays on the field, he is going to stack some stats.
Bengals vs Broncos SGP
- JK Dobbins 2+ TD
- JK Dobbins Over 65.5 rushing yards
- Broncos moneyline
Our big-ticket SGP: Bengals Bullied
Troy Franklin's TD price has fallen from +280 to +200 this week because of his heavy route and snap shares. He isn't Courtland Sutton, but he is shaping up as a big WR2 for this team and has separated himself from Marvin Mims. Browning is allergic to turnover-free football and will shoot himself in the foot Monday night vs. this defense on the road.
Bengals vs Broncos big-ticket SGP
- JK Dobbins 2+ TD
- Troy Franklin TD
- Jake Browning Over 0.5 interceptions
Bengals vs Broncos odds
- Spread: Cincinnati +7.5 | Denver -7.5
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +350 | Denver -450
- Over/Under: Over 44 | Under 44
Bengals vs Broncos betting trend to know
The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 26% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Broncos.
How to watch Bengals vs Broncos
| Location | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| Date | Monday, September 29, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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