Big slate Monday! There is so much to get into with the MLB player props market today.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Monday, Sept. 7, including why Rafael Devers is going to light up Michael McGreevy.
Our best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Emmet Sheehan |
Over 1.5 earned runs | -150 |
 Rafael Devers |
Over 1.5 total bases | +110 |
 Jo Adell |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -102 |
Emmet Sheehan Over 1.5 earned runs (-150)
For those moaning and groaning about the $1.50 price tag, we’re simply asking the Cincinnati Reds to do what they’ve done all season long, and that's score two runs in the first five innings. The Reds are averaging 2.51 runs in the first five frames this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Emmet Sheehan has faced some turbulence over his last three outings, posting an 8.31 ERA while allowing a 15% barrel rate to opposing hitters. He enters Monday with the sixth-worst pitcher rating, drawing three elite-rated hitters and three with strong ratings, per Batters-Box.
The Reds have been on a tear over their last six games, posting a 132 wRC+, .366 wOBA, and .833 OPS while generating plenty of hard-hit balls.
We’re simply asking this red-hot team to sneak past two runs before Sheehan is pulled.
- Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CIN, SNLA
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
I'm going back to Rafael Devers after he failed to come through on his hits + runs + RBI prop on Sunday. He did rip a single that came off the bat at over 107 mph, though. Hopefully, the San Francisco Giants slugger can elevate that ball over the wall this evening, or at least into the gap, as we take his total bases prop.
Devers owns the second-highest matchup rating on the day, covering over 87% of St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy's pitch mix. The last 30 left-handed hitters McGreevy has faced are generating a 13% barrel rate and 30.4% ground-ball rate while owning a .282 xBA and .473 SLG.
The big fella has maintained a .923 SLG and .538 ISO while producing a near-70% hard-hit rate and 27% barrel rate over his last 10 games.
Take this down to +100, or take his Over 1.5 HRR prop if you find a price below -130.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC/Peacock
Jo Adell Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-102)
Lefty killer and Cleveland Guardians slugger Jo Adell finds himself in a mouthwatering spot against Baltimore Orioles southpaw Trevor Rogers. Over his last 30 at-bats against left-handed pitching, Adell has a .560 SLG and .280 ISO while posting a 47% hard-hit rate and nearly 12% barrel rate.
Over Rogers' last 60 plate appearances against right-handed hitters, he is allowing 1.80 HR/9 with just a 35% ground-ball rate, while those hitters have posted a .363 xBA and .596 xSLG.
Adell is the highest-rated Guardian in both of Batters-Box's datasets, where he covers more than 67% of Rogers' arsenal and goes Over this prop nearly 54% of the time. On the road, he's cashed this prop 57.14% of the time across 21 elite ratings.
Take this down to -110.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CLEG, MASN
- Prop picks: 471-933, -2.9 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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