Sunday Funday has arrived, and we’re looking to attack some MLB player props this afternoon.
There is plenty to dive into across the player props market, and I’ve found a few spots worth targeting.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 6, including why Elly De La Cruz is going to light up Kyle Harrison.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Kyle Harrison |
Over 2.5 earned runs | +125 |
 Spencer Arrighetti |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -104 |
 Elly De La Cruz |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -109 |
Kyle Harrison Over 2.5 earned runs (+125)
Backing the Cincinnati Reds to do anything positive offensively is typically not the most enjoyable activity. However, they draw Milwaukee Brewers southpaw Kyle Harrison, who has been struggling in his last five outings, owning a 6.94 ERA and 1.63 WHIP while allowing a barrel rate over 13%.
Harrison draws four elite-rated hitters and one with a strong rating over on Batters-Box’s current-season dataset. In that dataset, the left-hander owns poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact, and ground-ball rate.
The reason the Reds are never fun to back is that they strike out at a high rate while being overly inconsistent. However, over their last 12 games, they have a 116 wRC+, .343 wOBA, and .783 OPS. During that stretch, they still have a strikeout rate above 26%, but the bats are hot while Harrison has not been.
If you want to get a lower number, take the Reds' first-five team total at 1.5. The price is around -130.
- Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CIN, BREW
Spencer Arrighetti Over 2.5 earned runs (-104)
With how putrid Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Spencer Arrighetti has been, he's an auto-fade at this point. The 26-year-old owns the worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current-season dataset, where he has poorly rated matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, strikeout, and ground-ball percentages.
He draws a Kansas City Royals lineup with two elite-rated hitters and another with a strong rating. The Royals offense has been pretty solid as of late, generating a ton of hard contact as a whole. Over their last 12 games, they have posted a 120 wRC+, .775 OPS, and .342 wOBA.
Arrighetti owns an ERA above 6.00 no matter how you look at it, whether it's his last three starts, last five starts, or road games this season. He's struggled with a very high walk rate this season, while the Royals do a great job limiting strikeouts and drawing walks.
Do not take this down much further, probably -110 at the most. Search for plus money, even if it's the Royals' first-five team total over 2.5.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, Sportsnet
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-109)
One of those elite-rated Reds this afternoon happens to be their star shortstop, Elly De La Cruz, who's been seeing the ball extremely well over his last 10 games. During that span, he has a .615 SLG while producing a 62.1% hard-hit rate and 17.2% barrel rate. He is absolutely tearing the cover off the ball.
Brewers southpaw Kyle Harrison has been getting torn up by right-handed hitters lately. Over the last 60 he has faced, he is allowing a 19.5% barrel rate, 7.59 HR/9 and just a 31.7% ground-ball rate. Those hitters have a .352 xBA, .670 xSLG, and .519 ISO.
Just numbers we cannot pass up on. On top of that, this price at -109 is a great HRR price for a guy who's always on base and can fly around the basepaths. I’d take this down to -120.
- Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CIN, BREW
- Prop picks: 465-926, -6.9 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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