It’s been a hot start to the season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, as the team heads to Citizens Bank Park for Game 1 of a four-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Despite Pittsburgh sitting first in the NL Central at 9-3, the MLB odds have the Phillies as the favorite with the Pirates deploying a rookie hurler on the mound for just his third career start.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and Pirates vs. Phillies predictions on Thursday, April 11.
Pirates vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates manager Derek Shelton is going with 22-year-old Jared Jones in Game 1 against the Philadelphia Phillies. With the Philly bats struggling to start the season, the more interesting battle may be on the other side of this matchup.
The Phillies are set to start 28-year-old Ranger Suarez for the third time this season and he’s going to have a tough time getting Ke’Bryan Hayes out, who has been surging to start the season with 15 hits and a slash line of .313/.404/.375.
Even with Hayes lacking power, his ability to make contact should help him finish with Over 1.5 total bases, especially with the way he’s set up to hit Suarez. Hayes has been a dynamo against lefties this season and Suarez just so happens to be a southpaw.
Hayes has a slash line of .429/.556/.571 against lefties this season with six hits and two doubles in 14 at-bats. It’s a small sample size, but last season he was smoking lefties more than righties, too, hitting .294 with 11 doubles, three triples, and seven home runs in 160 at-bats.
To make matters even tougher on Suarez, his pitch arsenal won’t help him on the mound when he’s dueling with Hayes. The Phillies starter has predominantly used his sinker this season (46.7% of the time) and that’s a pitch Hayes loved in 2023.
While he’s rarely seen sinkers this season, Hayes hit .307 against them last year and has never hit worse than .270 against it in his career — the Pirates third baseman far prefers fastball pitches after hitting .302 against them last year with 18 doubles, four triples, and six home runs.
With how hot Hayes’ bat has been for the Black and Gold, he’s poised to take advantage of it when Suarez uses his sinker. Now, if Suarez goes elsewhere, he has three other pitches he’s using more than 10% of the time this season — changeup (17%), four-seamer (15.2%), and curveball (14.5%).
Hayes has been obliterating four-seamers (.385 batting average) and curveballs (.500) to start the year, and while he’s been less effective against changeups (.273), he’s still been competent.
Hayes already has seven multi-hit games under his belt this season, and he could easily make it eight this evening.
Pirates vs Phillies same-game parlay
Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 1.5 total bases
Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 hits
Trea Turner Over 0.5 hits
Along with Hayes, Oneil Cruz has been a big key to the Pirates' early season success. He’s second on the team in hits (14) and batting .298. Against Suarez, Cruz can continue his solid play after posting at least one hit in eight of 12 games this season.
Across the dugout, the Pirates need to be worried about Trea Turner against their young pitcher. The two-time All-Star leads the club in hits (13) and has five knocks in his last three games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Phillies odds
Pirates vs Phillies live odds
Pirates vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-160) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+135)
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +32 | Philadelphia -143
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Pirates vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Coming off a win against the Cardinals, the Phillies opened as a -143 to -155 favorite against the Pirates. The line has seen minimal movement with most books offering Philadelphia -150.
- The Phillies have been iffy to start the season at 6-6 with the Pirates boasting one of the best records at 9-3.
- The Over/Under opened between 8.5 and 9 and remains there with some books offering the Over at even money.
- Pittsburgh is among the best Over betting teams this year, hitting it eight times in 12 games, but Philly has it just five times in 12 outings.
Pirates vs Phillies trend
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 78 of their last 139 games (+15.10 Units / 10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Phillies
Pirates vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, 4-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Jared Jones (1-1, 3.86 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Ranger Suarez (1-0, 4.09 ERA) |
Pirates vs Phillies latest injuries
Pirates vs Phillies weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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