The San Diego Padres are huge road underdogs to the Milwaukee Brewers ahead of the 8:30 p.m. ET first pitch of the NLDS at American Family Field on Saturday, Oct. 3.
My top Padres vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks expect the pair of powerful offenses to send this total Over the number, while Milwaukee wins Game 1 tonight.
Also be sure to check out our favorite Padres vs. Brewers props, where Jackson Chourio spearheads this high-scoring affair.
TOP PICK
Padres vs Brewers prediction: Over 6.5
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This is a heavyweight tilt, with the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers sending two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, so I recommend this Over to 7.5.
San Diego paced the majors in xwOBA with an average of 5.2 runs per game in the second half, and Milwaukee checked in fourth with a matching 5.2 runs per game.
We’re landing this low total because Brewers superstar Jacob Misiorowski had his workload managed down the stretch following a dominant regular season with a league-leading 2.12 xERA and 2.29 xFIP.
The Padres are countering with veteran lefty Robby Ray, so the Friars are at a pitching disadvantage.
I’m anticipating the Brew Crew to do enough damage at the plate to do the heavy lifting, so the Friars only need to chip in to send this Game 1 total Over the number.
COVERS INTEL: The Padres ranked second in wRC+ in September, and the Brewers were fourth.
Padres vs Brewers combo
With the highlight massive pitching edge, I’m anticipating the Brewers taking Game 1 at home. Milwaukee has won 34 of their last 50 games overall (+13.35 Units / 18% ROI), and the Brew Crew went 55-26 at American Family Field with the third-highest wOBA in the majors, after all.
Misiorowski is also rested following a managed workload down the stretch, so there will be no restrictions for the star righty in Game 1. Of course, he also recorded 18 or more outs in 18 of his first 27 starts of the season.
Padres vs Brewers combo
- Brewers moneyline
- Over 6.5
- Jacob Misiorowski Over 17.5 outs recorded
Padres vs Brewers player prop: Jacob Misiorowski Over 16.5 outs recorded
The Brewers were cautious with their ace down the stretch, and Misiorowski only pitched 13 1/3 innings across three scoreless outings to finish the year, so I recommend this prop to 57%.
He recorded 18 or more outs in six of his prior seven starts while holding opposing hitters to a minuscule .246 wOBA and .129 ISO, so the added rest positions the frontrunner in the National League Cy Young odds to pitch deep into Game 1.
Padres vs Brewers home run prediction: Jackson Chourio
Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio launched 15 of his 28 home runs with a .224 ISO at home this season, so I recommend this prop up to the 18% range.
Additionally, while his high-end .242 ISO against lefties jumps off the page, Chourio also sports an above-average .176 mark against righties.
With San Diego potential starter Buehler allowing a 1.56 HR/9 to righties and Ray at 1.50 HR/9, the Milwaukee star lands in a good matchup regardless of who the Friars send to the hill.
- Top picks: 131-111, +48.98 units
- Combos: 12-34, +4.52 units
Padres vs Brewers weather
Major League Baseball has full operational control over whether the retractable roof at American Family Field will be closed or not.
Historically, MLB prefers uniform game conditions and typically orders retractable roofs to be closed for postseason night games.
The official announcement should be available on the American Family Field Roof Status website Saturday afternoon.
Padres vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Padres 36% | Brewers 65%
- Run line: Padres +1.5 (55%) | Brewers -1.5 (46%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (44%) | Under 7.5 (57%)
Padres vs Brewers trend
The Brewers have won 34 of their last 50 games (+13.35 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Brewers.
How to watch Padres vs Brewers today and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Padres starting pitcher | Robbie Ray (13-8, 3.59 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA) |
Padres vs Brewers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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