The Tampa Bay Rays open the ALDS tonight as the league's top seed at 98-64, hosting the New York Yankees sans Aaron Judge after a two-game sweep of the Red Sox.
My Yankees vs. Rays predictions and MLB picks for Game 1 back the Under with confidence. I'm also throwing in some Yankees vs. Rays props, including a Yandy Diaz total bases pick, ahead of first pitch at 6:30 p.m. ET on TBS this Saturday, Oct. 3.
TOP PICK
Yankees vs Rays prediction: Under 6.5
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I’d play the Under to 49%.
Getting it between 45-49% is enough value with Drew Rasmussen and Gerrit Cole opening the series.
Rasmussen finished 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP, then closed the regular season by carrying a no-hitter into the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium, striking out 11. His history against this lineup runs far deeper than one night.
He is 5-2 with a 1.81 ERA and 0.86 WHIP across 11 appearances against the New York Yankees.
Cole counters with a 2.50 ERA in three starts against the Tampa Bay Rays this year, and a 2.93 ERA across 12 career playoff starts in pinstripes.
Tampa also has a home-turf advantage with its fundamental style of baseball. Tampa Bay went 55-26 at Tropicana Field, which carried a 99 Park Factor, essentially league-average.
Both starters work deep and limit traffic. A 3-2 or 2-1 finish fits this matchup better than another Yankees slugfest.
COVERS INTEL: Rasmussen’s 4.8% walk rate ranks in the 98th percentile, and opponents managed a .543 OPS against him across 172 innings. He’s elite at shutting down traffic, which supports my Under pick.
Yankees vs Rays combo
I’d play this combo up to 15%, with the three legs working out to roughly 14% implied probability.
Each part of the combo follows the same narrative. Rasmussen keeps New York quiet, Tampa Bay squeaks out a win in a low-scoring opener, and Yandy Diaz plays his part in a limited Rays offense.
Rays manager Kevin Cash has not set his rotation past Rasmussen either, and he is expected to use all five starters aggressively. Fresh arms back up Rasmussen, protecting both the Rays moneyline and the Under.
Then Diaz can clear the third leg with a single plus a run or an RBI.
Yankees vs Rays combo
- Rays moneyline
- Under 6.5
- Yandy Diaz 2+ hits + runs + RBI
Yankees vs Rays home run prediction: Junior Caminero
I’d play Junior Caminero to 22% for a quarter unit, a solid number on Tampa Bay’s best pure power bat.
Caminero finished with 42 home runs, and Cole’s pitch mix fits the pick well. The Yankees right-hander throws his four-seam fastball almost 49% of the time, and Caminero slugged .638 against four-seamers this season.
Cole also fought home run trouble through September, allowing nine homers in his final five starts of the season.
Yankees vs Rays player prop: Yandy Diaz 2+ total bases
I’d play Yandy Diaz 2+ total bases to 48%.
At 45%, the price is attractive given his home production and his history against Cole. Diaz hit .318 with a .531 slugging percentage at home this season and batted .305 against right-handed pitching.
He is also 17-for-50 against Cole with three doubles and two home runs, good for a .340 average and .520 slugging in the matchup.
One extra-base hit clears it outright. Two singles work just as well, giving Diaz multiple paths at a sub-50% price.
- Top picks: 17-18, -2.91 units
- Combos: 1-0, +1.25 units
Yankees vs Rays weather
Dome.
Yankees vs Rays odds today
- Moneyline: Yankees 45% | Rays 56%
- Run line: Yankees +1.5 (32%) | Rays -1.5 (36%)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Yankees vs Rays trend
Tampa Bay went 55-26 at Tropicana Field this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays.
How to watch Yankees vs Rays today and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Gerrit Cole (10-9, 3.61 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA) |
Yankees vs Rays latest injuries
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