And we've arrived at the NLDS. The Milwaukee Brewers will host the San Diego Padres in Game 1 on Saturday night.
Pitching figures are bound to be a primary storyline in this series, and Jackson Chourio's splits against southpaws spearhead my favorite Brewers vs. Padres prop picks for Oct. 3.
For more coverage, check out our full Brewers vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks.
Best Padres vs Brewers props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 hits |
50% |
 Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 hits |
46% |
| Jacob Misiorowski Over 7.5 strikeouts |
59% |
Prop pick #1: Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 hits
The most important question for San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill is whether he can handle Jacob Misiorowski’s heavy four-seam attack. I don't see it.
Merrill’s 2026 run-value profile is concerning against the pitches Misiorowski throws the most: he is at -0.5 Run Value/100 against four-seam fastballs, -0.4 against cutters, and just 0.1 against sliders.
Those three pitches account for 88% of Misiorowski’s arsenal, led by a 100.6-mph four-seamer used 63% of the time. Merrill has still produced a strong hard-hit rate and a .270 expected batting average, but Misiorowski has held left-handed hitters to a .114 average with 163 strikeouts.
Merrill’s best results come against curveballs, at +2.8 RV/100, but Misiorowski uses that pitch just 10.3% of the time.
I like this to 52%.
Prop pick #2: Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 hits
Milwaukee Brewers' youngster Jackson Chourio gets the platoon edge and a pitch mix that gives him several paths to quality contact.
Robbie Ray’s four-seam fastball and sinker make up nearly 50% of his arsenal, and Chourio has handled both pitches well, batting .331 with a .618 slugging percentage against four-seamers and .286 against sinkers. His overall Statcast profile includes a .265 expected batting average and .344 xwOBA.
Chourio has overperformed those metrics for much of the season, and I've been fading him regularly enough to be well aware of that gap.
Ray’s changeup and curveball have been his better run-value offerings, but Chourio has still posted a .310 average against changeups and .414 against curveballs. His .291 batting average and relatively low strikeout rate give him multiple-hit upside across four or five plate appearances.
Play to 48%.
Prop pick #3: Jacob Misiorowski Over 7.5 strikeouts
Misiorowski was one of my four pre-playoff World Series MVP bets, largely because of the numbers he can put up across multiple starts in a series. The soon-to-be Cy Young winner finished 2026 with 252 strikeouts in 174.2 innings, a 38% strikeout rate and a 37% whiff rate.
That's backed by metrics that place his fastball velocity at the literal top of the sport. The four-seamer is the foundation, used 63.4% of the time at 100.6 mph, but the curveball adds another swing-and-miss weapon with a 44.3% whiff rate.
In an earlier meeting this season, Misiorowski struck out Padres batters 10 times over seven innings, and he cleared 7.5 Ks in 19 of 30 regular season starts.
I believe this number is at least one full strikeout too low due to concerns over a potentially reduced workload. However, the adrenaline of making his playoff debut in front of a home crowd should offset any concerns about his pitch count.
Playable to 60%.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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