The New York Mets will try to get over .500 for the first time this season as they host the Pittsburgh Pirates for the second game of their three-game series on Tuesday night. The Mets (8-8) won the first game against the Pirates (11-6) by a 6-3 score on Monday night and are slight favorites again in the MLB odds.
I’ll break down who has the edge in my free MLB picks and Pirates vs. Mets predictions for Tuesday, April 16.
Pirates vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Mets moneyline (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
After a disastrous start, the New York Mets have turned things around, going 6-2 in their last eight games. New York’s offense has finally caught up to its pitching, and after spending the first week of the season as arguably the worst attack in baseball, it is now averaging 4.69 runs per game — above the MLB average.
While the raw numbers don’t look great for some of the Mets best hitters, the recent trends are far better. Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil have finally gotten their batting averages over .200 after very slow starts, and even Francisco Lindor (.152, 1 HR) has four hits in his last two games as he overcomes as 1-for-31 start.
Meanwhile, the Mets — as always — seem to be getting solid pitching. Tonight’s starter is Jose Quintana, who has looked solid through three games, going 1-1 with a 3.45 ERA so far on the year. While Quintana has struggled a bit with his control he’s been good otherwise, and gave up just three runs on five hits and two walks to pick up a win against a powerful Atlanta Braves lineup in his last start.
New York’s lineup should be able to find success tonight. The Pittsburgh Pirates are sending 22-year-old Jared Jones to the hill to make the fourth start of his rookie season. Jones has shown remarkable control for a young pitcher, walking just two batters and striking out 25 over the course of 18 innings of work. But he has been vulnerable to the longball, already allowing four homers on the year.
Jones looks like he has the making of a front-line starter for Pittsburgh, but he’s not there yet, pitching to a 4.00 ERA so far this year. The Mets could take advantage of his propensity for giving up the longball, as they have hit 11 homers in their last eight games.
The Pirates are on their way to being a contender, but don’t yet have the talent or experience to get there this season. The Mets may be an unremarkable team, but are a playoff contender thanks to the expanded postseason. With New York playing at home and enjoying the fruits of a surging lineup, it should be solid favorites in this game — but we’re getting toss-up odds instead. I’m taking the Mets to win outright tonight.
Pirates vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets moneyline
Over 7.5
Brett Baty 1+ hit
Along with taking the Mets to win this game, I’m going to throw in a bet on the Over for my same-game parlay. Both the Mets and Pirates play to average totals of over nine runs, and neither pitcher tonight is dominant.
I’ll also take Mets third baseman Brett Baty to pick up a hit, something he has done in 13 of his last 15 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Mets odds
Pirates vs Mets live odds
Pirates vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 | New York -1.5
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +117 | New York -127
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Pirates vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mets opened as -127 favorites over the Pirates. Most books have moved the line closer to even, and you can now find -110 on New York at some sites, while Pittsburgh is available at +100.
- New York moneyline bettors have just about broken even this year. The Pirates have earned 6.5 units for backers on the season.
- The total on this game opened at 7.5, and that remains the most common Over/Under on the market. Most books have the Under at -115, while the Over fetches -105 odds.
- The Mets are a dead-even 8-8 on the Over/Under for the season. The Over holds a 10-7 edge when the Pirates play this year.
Pirates vs Mets trend
The Mets have won six of their last eight games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Mets
Pirates vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
SNP, SNY
|
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Jared Jones (1-1, 4.00 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Quintana (1-1, 3.45 ERA) |
Pirates vs Mets latest injuries
Pirates vs Mets weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
