Pirates vs Mets Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Mets' ice-cold offense has started to defrost, and Pete Alonso is the only polar bear enjoying the temperature change. Our MLB picks expect his bat to stay hot when the Pirates sail into town looking for the win.

Apr 15, 2024 • 13:58 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Pete Alonso New York Mets MLB
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The Pittsburgh Pirates will look to regain their early season momentum when they visit the New York Mets at Citi Field tonight.

The Mets have won five of seven behind a rejuvenated offense, and are favorites over the Pirates tonight.

Pete Alonso has come to life over the past week and will have another chance to do damage tonight. I’ll talk about how the Polar Bear should be in your MLB picks this evening in my Pirates vs. Mets predictions on April 15. 

Pirates vs Mets prediction

My best bet
Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+350 at DraftKings)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

The New York Mets offense has come out of its early season slump, and Pete Alonso has been a major part of that revival. Alonso is hitting .261 with six homers and a .951 OPS over the first 15 games of the season. He’s also homered four times in his last five games.

He’s been particularly fond of going deep against lefties in 2024, hitting three homers in just 16 plate appearances. 

Perhaps there’s some concern about Alonso trying to get over the wall at Citi Field, which has historically been a pitcher’s park. While Alonso hasn’t hit quite as well at home, he hasn’t struggled to hit homers there, going yard once every 16.1 plate appearances. In other words, this power plays anywhere.

Tonight, Alonso gets a shot at another southpaw. Martin Perez is off to a strong start for the Pittsburgh Pirates this year, as the 33-year-old has gone 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA over his first three starts. For his career, however, Perez has been a dependably average pitcher and allows 1.0 homers per nine innings — an already unremarkable total that he has gone above in six of his last seven seasons. 

Perez has always struggled with right-handed hitting, especially with power from that side of the plate. In his long career, 141 of the 164 home runs he's allowed have been given up to righties.

From his historical numbers against southpaw pitching to Perez’s average numbers when it comes to keeping balls in the park, this looks like a game where Alonso should be more likely than average to hit a home run. Yet despite this, some oddsmakers are giving surprisingly generous odds on Alonso to go deep tonight.

While home run props are never a sure thing, we should always be looking for the most profitable spots to place bets, and this is a great one provided you can get +350 or better. 

Pirates vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)

Pete Alonso to hit a home run

Mets moneyline

Over 8.5

After choosing Alonso to go deep tonight, the rest of this same-game parlay almost writes itself. I’m taking the Mets to win behind Alonso’s homer. Given the offensive prowess of both teams as of late, I’ll also take the Over at a very reasonable 8.5 runs to round out this SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pirates vs Mets odds

Pirates vs Mets live odds

Pirates vs Mets opening odds

  • Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-198) | New York -1.5 (+176)
  • Moneyline: Pittsburgh +107 | New York -116
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)

Pirates vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis

  • The Mets opened as a -116 favorite tonight. The consensus moneyline is now New York -125, with the Pirates available at +110 at some sites
  • Pittsburgh has been great for bettors so far this year, winning nearly 7.5 units in the moneyline. The Mets are down a little more than a unit on the season
  • The Over/Under for this game opened at 8.5 runs and has stayed on that total at most books. The Under is available at a -105 discount at some sites
  • The Over holds a 9-7 edge in Pirates games this year, while the Under has the 8-7 edge when the Mets play

Pirates vs Mets trend

Pete Alonso has hit four home runs in his last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Mets

Pirates vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY
Date: Monday, 4-15-2024
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: SportsNet Pittsburgh, SNY
Pirates starting pitcher: Martin Perez
(3-2, 2.40 ERA)
Mets starting pitcher: Adrian Houser
(2-3, 1.80 ERA)

Pirates vs Mets latest injuries

Pirates vs Mets weather

Not intended for use in MA.
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