The Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars will open their season Sunday, Sept. 13 at EverBank Stadium. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.
My Browns vs. Jaguars predictions back the Browns and QB Deshaun Watson, at least in the first half, as he's making his first regular-season start since 2024. The Browns are 8.5-point underdogs in Week 1.
My top NFL picks call for a competitive, low-scoring affair.
TOP PICK
Browns vs Jaguars prediction: Cleveland Browns +4.5 — 1st half (52%)
Since the beginning of the 2023 season, fading teams in the first half of Week 1 that did not give their starting quarterback any playing time in the preseason is 16-3 ATS. The logic follows that joint practices are insufficient to replicate the speed and timing of a regular-season game, which leads those quarterbacks to struggle early in their team's Week 1 opener.
This trend is off to a strong start in 2026 — Drake Maye, Sam Darnold, and Matthew Stafford all skipped the entire preseason, and each of them struggled mightily earlier this week. The Patriots, Seahawks, and Rams each scored 13 points or fewer in their season opener, and none of the aforementioned signal callers even managed 200 passing yards.
Darnold exited early in Wednesday's game with an injury, but even removing him from the sample doesn't significantly weaken the trend.
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is among this year's Week 1 starting quarterbacks who didn't play in the preseason.
Deshaun Watson didn't look sharp during joint practices or the preseason this year, but the skill position players around him are talented, and the Cleveland Browns defense is solid.
This is a lot of points for Jacksonville to cover in one half of football if Lawrence isn't playing at a high level.
COVERS INTEL: Deshaun Watson is 7-0 SU in his career against the Jaguars.
Browns vs Jaguars combo (18.1%)
Deshaun Watson will start at quarterback for the Browns in Week 1, making his first appearance in a regular-season game since 2024. Since his last start, he's undergone two Achilles surgeries, which threaten his ability to look like the dual-threat quarterback Cleveland was willing to trade three first-round picks for back in March 2022.
Since arriving in Cleveland, Watson ranks 56th in EPA/play and 57th in Success Rate among 58 quarterbacks to log 500+ snaps. Watson will have the added challenge on Sunday of playing behind a completely revamped offensive line that features five new starters for 2026.
Trevor Lawrence didn't play in the preseason, which could limit his ceiling, too. Drake Maye, Sam Darnold, and Matthew Stafford didn't play in the preseason this year — each of them finished Week 1 with 178 passing yards or fewer. None of their teams went over their team total.
Jacksonville's defense allowed the 5th-lowest completion% on downfield throws in 2025, which should limit Watson's ability to connect for explosive plays. Lawrence and the Jacksonville passing attack could struggle as they shake off some rust. Points could be at a premium throughout this game for both teams.
Browns vs Jaguars combo
- First Half Total — Under 20.5
- Jaguars Under 24.5 points scored
- Trevor Lawrence Under 231.5 passing yards
Browns vs Jaguars touchdown scorer: Brenton Strange (30%)
The Jaguars drafted Nate Boerkircher in the second round this past summer, in part, to take some blocking responsibilities off of Brenton Strange. The idea was to get Strange more involved as a pass-catcher and to preserve his stamina by taking him off of some of the tougher blocking assignments he faced in 1-on-1 situations in 2025.
Cleveland's top coverage linebacker, Carson Schwesinger, missed the majority of training camp with a shoulder injury. Buffalo's tight ends had their way with Cleveland's defense in a joint practice with Schwesinger off of the field.
Schwesinger is expected to play in Week 1, but he might not be at full strength. Strange could be the primary beneficiary of any lapses in coverage in the middle of the field.
Browns vs Jaguars odds
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- Spread: Browns +8.5 | Jaguars -8.5
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (50%) | Under 40.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Browns 22% | Jaguars 79%
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Browns vs Jaguars weather
The forecasted temperature is around 90 degrees on Sunday in Jacksonville, with a chance of thunderstorms. The weather doesn't look like it will have a strong impact on the outcome of this contest.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Browns vs Jaguars trend to know
The Cleveland Browns have covered the 1Q spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.50u / 26% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Jaguars.
How to watch Browns vs Jaguars
| Location | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Browns vs Jaguars latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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