The Detroit Lions are trading between -6.5 and -7 home favorites over the New Orleans Saints ahead of their 1 p.m. ET opening kick at Ford Field on Sunday, Sept. 13.
My top Saints vs. Lions prediction and NFL picks expect Detroit stars Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown to lead the way to a statement Week 1 win in the Motor City.
TOP PICK
Saints vs Lions prediction: Lions -6.5
Last season saw a huge gap in red-zone efficiency between the Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints, in addition to the huge home-road splits for the two offenses.
Detroit scored touchdowns on 62.5% of its trips to the red zone to rank eighth, while New Orleans found paydirt at a league-low 44.4% rate. The Lions also averaged 32.5 points per home game, while the Saints scored just 18.3 points per road contest.
The Lions also finished eighth in offensive DVOA and seventh in EPA per play, well above the Saints' respective marks of 28th and 21st. As a result, I’m anticipating Detroit putting too many points on the board for New Orleans to keep pace.
I happily grabbed Detroit below the key number of 7, and I would also back the Lions moneyline at -7 due to the sheer gap in offensive talent.
COVERS INTEL: New Orleans Saints starting QB Tyler Shough finished 25th in both adjusted EPA per player and success rate among the 34 quarterbacks with at least 300 snaps in 2025.
Saints vs Lions combo
Lions quarterback Jared Goff and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown have been a go-to connection for Detroit, and Goff's 110.6 passer rating when targeting St. Brown was the 15th-highest mark to wideouts last year.
I expect the duo to be the driving force behind Detroit covering the number, and Goff has connected for 23 or more passes in five of his eight home games.
With St. Brown reaching double-digit touchdowns in three consecutive seasons, this touchdown prop is mispriced, and it provides a huge boost to the return of this combo.
Saints vs Lions combo
- Lions -6.5
- Jared Goff 23+ completions
- Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown — Yes
Saints vs Lions touchdown scorer: Amon-Ra St. Brown
St. Brown garnered a 38.9% target share in the red zone last year, which translated into pacing all receivers in red-zone targets and receptions.
He also finished third in PFF receiving grade last season, so I’m anticipating the rejigged New Orleans secondary to have fits trying to cover St. Brown. In particular, second-year defensive back Jonas Sanker is set to debut as the slot corner after playing safety as a rookie in 2025, and St. Brown lined up in the slot on 55.7% of his offensive snaps.
This touchdown prop is in play to 50%.
Saints vs Lions odds
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- Spread: Saints +6.5 | Lions -6.5
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (52.4%) | Under 49.5 (52.4%)
- Moneyline: Saints 27.8% | Lions 76.2%
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Saints vs Lions weather
Ford Field is a fixed-roof, climate-controlled indoor stadium.
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Saints vs Lions trend to know
New Orleans has only hit the Over in seven of its last 20 games (-7.35 Units / -33% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Lions.
How to watch Saints vs Lions
| Location | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Saints vs Lions latest injuries
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