The Subway Series continues this afternoon, and my Mets vs. Yankees predictions look for the hosts to cover the run line against a Mets squad that has no pitching.
I’ll break down why the Yankees are 63% favorites in my MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 12.
Who will win Mets vs Yankees today: Yankees -1.5 (46%)
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I’m playing the New York Yankees run line up to 50% against a New York Mets team that has no pitching.
The Mets have a 6.38 team ERA in September — third worst in MLB — and that number won’t improve with Zac Thornton on the hill.
Thornton has a 5.00 ERA over his last five starts, in line with his 4.66 xERA, which ranks in the 25th percentile. The Mets’ bullpen also has a 6.34 ERA in September.
The Yankees are nearly back at full strength with Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger in the lineup, and they’ve got a steady hand on the mound in Gerrit Cole.
The Pinstripes have also won by 2+ runs in each of their last nine victories.
COVERS INTEL: The Yankees rank first in batting average (.365), first in BABIP (.491), and third in wOBA (.388) against left-handed pitching this month.
Mets vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (49%)
Weak pitching and hot bats mean I’m playing the Over up to 52%.
Thornton has been bad, but Cole also carries a 4.91 ERA over his last three outings.
Both teams are also hitting well — the Mets lead the majors in several key categories, including wOBA (.365), SLG (.479), and OPS (.836) this month, while the Yankees are averaging 6.75 runs per game over their last four outings.
The Over is 7-0-1 in the last eight Subway Series meetings.
- ML/RL bets: 9-9, -1.47 units
- Over/Under bets: 8-10, -2.40 units
Mets vs Yankees weather
Weather won’t be a factor today at Yankee Stadium, with temperatures in the high 70s and light winds blowing in from right field.
Mets vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Mets 38% | Yankees 63%
- Run line: Mets +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Mets vs Yankees trend
The Over is 8-1 in the Mets’ last nine games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Yankees.
How to watch Mets vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, YES |
| Mets starting pitcher | Zac Thornton (3-5, 3.53 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Gerrit Cole (8-8, 3.41 ERA) |
Mets vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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