The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays have split the first two games of their three-game set, and the series will wrap up this evening at the Rogers Centre.
A pair of struggling starters will toe the rubber for the AL East rivals, and our Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks expect the Baltimore bats to power them to another win on Thursday, August 8.
Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Orioles moneyline (-118 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
It’s been a down season for Toronto Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman, and he sports a 4.89 ERA and 1.26 WHIP since being toyed with by the Baltimore Orioles for six earned runs back on June 3. The veteran righty has minus pitch values across the board, and the velocity of both his fastball and splitter are down, per FanGraphs.
The result has been fewer swinging strikes and a higher cont, act percentage from opposing hitters, which has also resulted in an uptick in the average exit velocity, launch angle, and barrel percentage compared to last season.
Of course, the elephant in the room is that Baltimore starter Dean Kremer hasn’t been sharp since returning from a triceps strain in early July. He cruised in his first start back with five shutout innings and eight strikeouts against Seattle, but he holds a 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and 5.52 xFIP in his last five starts.
Still, the Orioles' offense boasts a third-ranked .332 wOBA compared to Toronto’s 16th-ranked .307 mark against right-handed pitchers, and Baltimore has a far superior bullpen. The Blue Jays relievers enter tonight with a 29th-ranked 5.06 ERA and 4.57 xFIP, and they’ve been even worse since the All-Star break, sporting 5.83 and 5.01 marks.
The Orioles were also buyers ahead of the trade deadline while the Jays shipped out talent, and I think oddsmakers are giving Gausman too much credit. His statistical profile positions him as a middling starter and not a front-of-the-rotation arm.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+125 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
After collecting 10 RBI across a seven-game stretch in which he went 15-for-26 at the dish with six doubles and four home runs, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn’t recorded an RBI in three straight. However, the Toronto slugger has gone a respectable 3-for-10 during the RBI drought, and I like his chances to drive one home tonight.
As discussed, Kremer enters this start in poor form for the Orioles, and Guerrero sports an impressive .382 wOBA and .198 ISO against right-handed pitchers this season. The Blue Jays star also has squared up Kremer to the tune of a .320/370/.840 slash line with a double, four home runs, and seven RBI across 27 career plate appearances.
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Orioles vs Blue Jays odds
Orioles vs Blue Jays live odds
Orioles vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore -1.5 (+144) | Toronto +1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: Baltimore -112 | Toronto +104
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+104) | Under 9 (-117)
Orioles vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a small move to the Toronto side of this moneyline, with Pinnacle opening with the Blue Jays priced at +104, and the home team is trading at -101 as of Thursday afternoon.
- A similar adjustment has been made at bet365, too. Baltimore opened as a -125 road favorite, and now both teams are trading at -110.
- The total is a near consensus of 9.0, with the Over carrying the higher vig through bet365.
- The Over is also on a 7-3 run in the last 10 meetings between the Orioles and Blue Jays, so the 8.5 total through PROLINE+ stands as an outlier number to target.
Orioles vs Blue Jays trend
Baltimore is 7-4 straight up against Toronto this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Blue Jays.
Orioles vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN2, Sportsnet |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Dean Kremer (4-8, 4.39 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (9-8, 4.56 ERA) |
Orioles vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Orioles vs Blue Jays weather
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