It's the last Friday of the regular season, and my home run props have identified some sluggers offering plenty of value.
CJ Abrams is going off at way too long a price tonight, and Yordan Alvarez draws a great situation in Sacramento.
Plus, Zack Gelof can go deep vs. the Astros yet again.
Read on for my MLB player props for Friday, Sept. 25.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
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Home run prediction: CJ Abrams
I don't think I've ever seen CJ Abrams this long, and he is featured here at least once a week.
Justin Hagenman is the projected starter, but the MLB app still shows TBD as of this afternoon. Either way, it doesn't look like a confident starter today against the Nationals and Abrams. It's likely going to be a righty regardless, which is great news for Abrams, as he has a .900 OPS against right-handers this year with 25 taters.
Abrams isn't cooling off in the fall month, either, as he had two homers in his last series and another against the Cardinals.
The wind is blowing in, but lefty bats should have a better chance to cut through it with the wind coming in from left field. This price still makes little sense when Abrams is usually around 5x, not 7.2x.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, WPIX
Home run prediction: Yordan Alvarez
It must be the end of the season because we're getting Yordan Alvarez at one of his best prices in weeks in maybe the best home-run matchup on the entire slate.
Alvarez should be priced at 3.2x, not 3.7x, today against Jacob Lopez in Sacramento. Lopez looks like he wants to call it a season after giving up 10 runs in his last start and 19 runs over his last three starts, spanning just 12.1 innings.
Lopez has also allowed multiple homers in three of his last four games, and Alvarez has taken him deep once in five meetings.
This is the best September hitting weather, with winds blowing out, a tired starter who looks ready to wrap it up, and the price is right. Full send here.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, Space City Network
Home run prediction: Zack Gelof
This was a run-not-walk trade at a fair price of 6x, not 8.1x.
Zack Gelof just launched two homers last night in Sacramento and has five dingers over his last 10 games. He has 22 on the season and gets the best hitting conditions on the board today at Sutter Health Park, with winds blowing out and decent temperatures.
Hunter Brown is on the other side, which is a big reason why this is priced this long, but Gelof has a .936 OPS at home compared to .664 on the road and has seen Brown 14 times. The numbers aren't great, but there is some familiarity there.
Sutter Health Park can get to even the best pitchers, which is why it finished as the best Over park of the season at better than 60%.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, Space City Network
- HR picks: 41-152, -10.2 units
Best home run combo for September 25
 CJ Abrams |
Trade Now 191.0x |
 Yordan Alvarez |
|
 Zack Gelof |
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