The final Friday of the regular season is here, and our MLB expert picks are headlined by the start of a make-or-break series for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
With the final NL Wild Card spot still within reach, Brandon Pfaadt & Co. spearhead our best MLB picks for Sept. 25 as Arizona looks to keep its postseason hopes alive.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: HOU/A's o8.5 |
56% |
 Jon Metler: AZ ML |
46% |
 Joe Osborne: TEX/MIN o7 |
55% |
 Dustin Saracini: TOR ML |
57% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Astros/A's Over 8.5
Price: 56¢ at Polymarket
The days are running out at Sutter Health Park, which has been an Over gold mine all season. The Over has hit in 64.3% of games there — the highest home rate in baseball.
Houston Astros right-hander Hunter Brown is pitching for a division contender, but he gets a massive downgrade in Sacramento. Meanwhile, the A's are rolling with Jacob Lopez, who was tagged for 10 runs in his last outing and has surrendered 19 runs over his last three starts.
Add in the wind blowing out to center and the best-hitting weather on the slate, and everything points toward another high-scoring game.
The fair price is 69%, with 11.4 runs expected.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: One national/two local
Jon Metler's expert pick: Diamondbacks moneyline
Price: 46¢ at Polymarket
The Arizona Diamondbacks are trading at 46% on Polymarket, and I'm hitting the button at that price, as I make them closer to 50% against the San Diego Padres.
You can't have your back against the wall much more than the Diamondbacks do this weekend. They need to sweep the Padres to have any hope of making the postseason, so I expect their roster to be managed as if they're playing an elimination game.
I also really like the matchup for Brandon Pfaadt. The heart of the Padres' lineup is loaded with right-handed bats, and that's a matchup Pfaadt has handled well this season. He's held right-handed hitters to a .599 OPS, thanks in large part to his hard, sweeping slider that runs away from the barrels of right-handed hitters.
With the urgency surrounding Arizona and a favorable matchup for Pfaadt, the Diamondbacks have my attention at 46%.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Dbacks.TV, Padres.TV
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Rangers/Twins Over 7
Price: 55¢ at Polymarket
Neither offense is lighting up the league, but there are too many red flags in this pitching matchup for a total this low. “Over” and Jacob deGrom rarely belong in the same sentence, but he’s been getting smacked around on the road all season, where the Texas Rangers righty has a 5.35 ERA.
Minnesota Twins starter Joe Ryan has been flat-out awful since the All-Star break, sporting a 7.62 ERA and allowing 11 homers allowed in six appearances. Five of those games cleared seven runs. Both bullpens are also struggling, ranking 23rd and 25th in ERA over the past two weeks.
We've got more ammo with a Rangers team that's gone Over in five of their last six games. (edited)
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: RSN, Twins.TV
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline
Price: 57¢ at Polymarket
I'm comfortably fading Cincinnati Reds hurler Nick Lodolo, who's having one of the worst seasons of his five-year career, and would play this to 59%.
Lodolo owns the highest xERA (6.42), xSLG (.486), and xBA (.293) since breaking into the league in 2022, and has coughed up three or more earned runs in five of his last six starts.
Jose Soriano will be making his final start at home and limited the Reds to a seven-inning, two-hit, 10-strikeout shutout earlier this year while he was still with the Los Angeles Angels.
Although the Toronto Blue Jays are limping to the finish line, they should be able to give the crowd something to cheer about tonight.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Reds.TV, Sportsnet
More MLB picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Guardians ML | 57% |
| Read analysis in our Guardians vs. Royals predictions | |
| Orioles ML (Game 1) | 48% |
| Read analysis in our Orioles vs. Yankees predictions | |
| Dodgers -2.5 | 53% |
| Read analysis in our Dodgers vs. Giants predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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