The Arizona Diamondbacks (46%) are underdogs in San Diego as they fight tooth-and-nail to keep their NL Wild Card hopes alive.
My Diamondbacks vs. Padres predictions believe Arizona is live at a nice price with Casey Mize bleeding runs on a regular basis.
Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, Sept. 25.
Who will win Diamondbacks vs Padres today: Diamondbacks moneyline
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I’m backing the Arizona Diamondbacks up to 50%.
Their bats are in a good spot to do damage against Casey Mize, who continues to struggle with the San Diego Padres. He has pitched to a 6.11 xERA and 6.64 ERA since the trade while allowing 2.21 home runs per nine innings.
The Diamondbacks rank Top 12 in average and SLG against right-handed pitching in September, and are potent enough at the plate to cause him problems.
Brandon Pfaadt held the Padres scoreless over his last 11 2/3 innings against them, and will give the Snakes a fighting chance.
COVERS INTEL: Mize's seventh percentile ground-ball rate could get him into trouble against the Diamondbacks, who sit second in FB% vs. right-handed pitching in September.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under pick: Over 7.5
A 7.5 total is a touch low, and I’m jumping on the Over to 54%.
Mize has allowed 3.3 runs per start with the Padres despite failing to complete five innings on average. He has also conceded multiple runs in eight of nine.
He’s bleeding runs nightly, and it just so happens his worst start (eight runs over 3 1/3 innings) came against Arizona.
Pfaadt has not been sharp (4.63 ERA, 4.23 xERA) over the last month. That should be exposed by a Padres offense sitting Top 5 in wOBA and SLG against righties in September.
Diamondbacks vs Padres home run prediction: Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll has the highest offensive ceiling of anybody on the Diamondbacks, and he has shown it more frequently of late.
He hasn’t hit for average, but he’s generated barrels at a remarkably high 20.2% clip against fastballs, splitters, and sliders over the last 25 games. That has led to an ISO of nearly .240.
It’s also worth noting Carroll’s had Mize’s number, albeit over a limited sample. He is 4-for-6 with four hard-hit balls and a triple against Mize. Sign me up.
- ML/RL picks: 125-101, +0.21 units
- Over/Under picks: 118-102-6, +2.36 units
Diamondbacks vs Padres weather
Temperatures in the mid-70s are expected with winds blowing inwards. Slight boost to the pitchers.
Diamondbacks vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks 46% | Padres 55%
- Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (64%) | Padres -1.5 (37%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (52%) | Under 7.5 (49%)
Diamondbacks vs Padres trend
Arizona has hit the moneyline in 27 of its last 50 away games (+8.20 units, 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Padres.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Friday, Sept. 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Dbacks.TV, Padres.TV |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Brandon Pfaadt (7-3, 3.72 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Casey Mize (6-9, 3.96 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Padres latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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