The Los Angeles Dodgers come into tonight’s game as big 68% moneyline favorites against the Washington Nationals in what should be a pitcher’s duel between Tyler Glasnow and Cade Cavalli.
I’ll break down why I’m picking the hosts to win a low-scoring game in my Nationals vs. Dodgers predictions and free MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 5.
Who will win Nationals vs Dodgers today: Dodgers moneyline (68%)
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The Los Angeles Dodgers will be without Shohei Ohtani tonight, but they’ve still got an elite offense. And they won’t need to give Tyler Glasnow much run support, anyway.
Glasnow ranks in the 97th percentile in both xERA (2.44) and xBA (.183), as well as the 83rd percentile in overall pitching run value.
The Washington Nationals have been the second-best offensive team in baseball this season (5.16 runs per game). However, they’ve averaged just 3.80 runs per game since Aug. 14, scoring two or fewer in 10 of their last 20.
I don’t love the Dodgers' tax here, but we’re pigeonholed with L.A. only covering the run line in 13 of its last 50 contests.
Back the Dodgers to 69%.
COVERS INTEL: Since Aug. 14, the Nationals rank 28th in wOBA (.290), a big drop-off compared to their full-season number (.328, third).
Nationals vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (57%)
Cade Cavalli has been impressive for the Nationals, especially down the stretch, sporting a 1.75 ERA over his last six starts while allowing two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 appearances.
The Dodgers obviously have an elite offense, but they’ll miss Ohtani, who leads all L.A. starting players in SLG and OPS vs. right-handed pitching.
Washington has cashed the Under in 29 of its last 50 games, while Los Angeles has hit the Under in eight of its last 11.
Play to 58%.
Nationals vs Dodgers home run prediction: Freddie Freeman (17%)
Freddie Freeman isn’t the 30+ home run hitter he once was, but he’s still got a respectable 16 dingers this season. He broke a near two-month home run drought on Wednesday, and I like his chances to go yard again tonight.
Freeman has been particularly dangerous against the four-seamer from righties, batting a ridiculous .355 with a .554 SLG. Six of his homers have come against that pitch type, and it’s also Cavalli’s most common offering (32.9%).
- ML/RL bets: 8-9, -1.94 units
- Over/Under bets: 8-9, -1.40 units
Nationals vs Dodgers weather
Weather shouldn’t be a major factor tonight at Dodger Stadium, where they’re expecting temperatures in the 70s and very light winds blowing out to right field.
Nationals vs Dodgers odds
- Moneyline: Nationals 33% | Dodgers 68%
- Run line: Nationals +1.5 | Dodgers -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Nationals vs Dodgers trend
The Nationals have hit the team total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.45 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Nationals vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Nationals.TV, SNLA |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Cade Cavalli (12-5, 3.12 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Tyler Glasnow (4-0, 2.79 ERA) |
Nationals vs Dodgers latest injuries
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