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My MLB moneyline predictions for today's slate include backing a lot of pricey favorites, which include the Milwaukee Brewers.
Before we dive in, be sure to check out all our MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 9.
MLB moneyline picks for September 9
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Twinsvs  Tigers |
46% |
 Blue Jaysvs  Athletics |
64% |
 Cardinalsvs  Giants |
55% |
 Nationalsvs  Padres |
63% |
 Rangersvs  Mariners |
42% |
 Guardiansvs  Orioles |
52% |
 Astrosvs  Phillies |
41% |
 Metsvs  Marlins |
54% |
 Angelsvs  Red Sox |
34% |
 Rockiesvs  Yankees |
69% |
 Raysvs  Braves |
46% |
 Diamondbacksvs  Royals |
48% |
 Piratesvs  White Sox |
56% |
 Cubsvs  Brewers |
55% |
 Redsvs  Dodgers |
28% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of Sept. 9.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 9
Twins vs Tigers: Twins
Twins win probability: 46%
There is nothing gravitating me toward wanting to back the Tigers in this one. Why would you want to pay juice for a team that has had a wRC+ below 85 for over 21 games now?
Sure, the Twins have an 80 over their last six, but over their last 21, they are above 100. Plus, Zebby Matthews has found his footing late in the season, owning a 2.66 ERA and 0.84 WHIP while allowing very minimal hard contact.
Trust the Twins.
Blue Jays vs Athletics: Blue Jays
Blue Jays win probability: 64%
Paying this much juice for the Blue Jays has not been the most fun bet to make this season. However, their bats have come alive over their last 21 games, posting a 120 wRC+, .342 wOBA, and .777 OPS.
They do have Michael Lorenzen on the bump this afternoon, which could make things a little sweaty, but it is the Blue Jays or nothing here.
Cardinals vs Giants: Cardinals
Cardinals win probability: 55%
The road team speaks to me more in this matchup, as Andre Pallante has been pretty solid across his last five starts, posting a 2.51 ERA while limiting hard-hit balls.
The Birds' bats have been much hotter than the Giants' over the last week-plus, and Blade Tidwell has been allowing a concerning amount of barrels over his last three starts.
Give me the Cardinals.
Nationals vs Padres: Padres
Padres win probability: 63%
Walker Buehler has been a breath of fresh air over his last five outings, sporting a 2.57 ERA and 0.85 WHIP while limiting hitters to just a 28% hard-hit rate.
The Padres' bats have gone a bit cold, but the Nationals are much colder, posting just a 78 wRC+, .639 OPS, and a near 28% strikeout rate over their last six games.
Pay the juice.
Rangers vs Mariners: Rangers
Rangers win probability: 42%
Cody Bradford may not have looked the sexiest across his last few starts, but the Rangers' bats are far too hot to fade at the moment.
Kade Anderson has a 5.40 ERA through three starts while owning a 2.94 xERA, so he could be due for some progression. But with how hot the Rangers are at the plate, it shouldn't be today.
Guardians vs Orioles: Guardians
Guardians win probability: 52%
The Orioles' near 30% strikeout rate and 79 wRC+ over their last week of play are a major turnoff in this spot. Sure, Foster Griffin is not a strikeout pitcher, but he has done a great job limiting hard-hit balls for the Guardians over his last few outings.
The team playing better baseball over their last six, 12, and 21 games is the Guardians.
Astros vs Phillies: Astros
Astros win probability: 41%
The Cristopher Sanchez tax is in full effect today, as the Phillies are a heavy favorite. However, their lineup has been ice cold, posting just a 74 wRC+, .279 wOBA, and .633 OPS over their last six games.
Houston has not been much better, but Hunter Brown has been nails for the Astros. The right-hander has posted a 1.96 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over his last three starts while allowing just a 6.38% barrel rate.
Take the dog.
Mets vs Marlins: Marlins
Marlins win probability: 54%
In Janson Junk we trust!
The Marlins right-hander has been extremely solid over his last few starts, and he draws a Mets lineup that has been swinging a hot bat. If Junk can keep New York in check, the Marlins should have a favorable matchup on the other side against Robert Stock.
Stock owns a 6.52 ERA over his last three outings, and Miami should have an opportunity to put some pressure on him early. If Junk can do his part against this Mets lineup, I like the Fightin' Fish to come out on top.
Angels vs Red Sox: Angels
Angels win probability: 34%
The Ryan Johnson disrespect has gone too far!
The Angels starter has been excellent over his last five starts, posting a 1.63 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while allowing a hard-hit rate under 40%.
Sure, Red Sox starter Jake Bennett has been great, but the Angels seemed just fine in last night's 6-1 win.
Give the dogs a chance!
Rockies vs Yankees: Yankees
Yankees win probability: 69%
Death. Taxes. Why on earth would we ever back Tomoyuki Sugano?
Yankees right-hander Will Warren has been very solid in his most recent starts, while Sugano owns a 9.69 ERA over his last three.
Yankees or nothing.
Rays vs Braves: Rays
Rays win probability: 46%
The Rays as a dog? Yes, please!
Football must really be back, because why on earth would the Braves be a favorite here with Reynaldo Lopez on the bump? He owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his last three starts.
Meanwhile, Griffin Jax has a 2.75 xERA over his last five starts while allowing just a 5.63% barrel rate. The Rays' bats are also much hotter than the Braves' at this point in time.
Rays or nothing.
Diamondbacks vs Royals: Royals
Royals win probability: 48%
Royals or nothing here.
It is perplexing as to why a team with a 70 wRC+, .273 wOBA, and .116 ISO, with a pitcher who owns a 5.40 ERA on the mound this evening, is a road favorite.
The Royals' bats have been scorching hot, so keep leaning into that.
Pirates vs White Sox: White Sox
White Sox win probability: 56%
This White Sox team has to bounce back after last night's blowout loss. They could lose the Central if they do not put their heads down and get back to work now!
Right-hander Davis Martin has not been the greatest over his last few starts, but he has been nails all season long at the Rate. Hopefully, this team can bring the juice, as they typically do after a big loss.
Cubs vs Brewers: Brewers
Brewers win probability: 55%
This should be a good old-fashioned pitchers' duel, as both big-glove Kevin Gausman and Logan Henderson have been lights out over their last few starts.
The Cubs' offense has started to dip over their last six games, as they own a sub-100 wRC+, .314 wOBA, and .139 ISO.
With the Cubs' horrendous bullpen, the lean will always go to the other team when they are cold at the dish.
Reds vs Dodgers: Reds
Reds win probability: 28%
We are not paying that much juice for any team to win a game. Give me the red-hot Reds bats as a major underdog.
Luckily for us, the Dodgers' bats have been a little cold as of late, barely barreling the ball or making hard contact. No reason to pay all that juice.
GO REDS GO!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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