Full slate Tuesday!
My MLB moneyline predictions for today's slate include backing a lot of pricey favorites, which include the Baltimore Orioles.
Before we dive in, be sure to check out all our MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 8.
MLB moneyline picks for September 8
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Guardiansvs  Orioles |
52% |
 Astrosvs  Phillies |
44% |
 Twinsvs  Tigers |
56% |
 Metsvs  Marlins |
54% |
 Angelsvs  Red Sox |
44% |
 Rockiesvs  Yankees |
25% |
 Raysvs  Braves |
49% |
 Diamondbacksvs  Royals |
48% |
 Cubsvs  Brewers |
66% |
 Piratesvs  White Sox |
57% |
 Rangersvs  Mariners |
44% |
 Blue Jaysvs  A's |
62% |
 Nationalsvs  Padres |
63% |
 Cardinalsvs  Giants |
50% |
 Redsvs  Dodgers |
74% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of September 8.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 8
Guardians vs Orioles: Orioles
Orioles win probability: 52%
Orioles right-hander Brandon Young has been holding it down in his last few outings, posting a 2.79 ERA while limiting hard-hit and barreled balls. On the other side, Tanner Bibee has been solid, but he has been walking guys at a very high rate, which the Orioles could exploit, as they have been drawing a lot of walks over their last 12 games.
Neither offense has shown much life as of late, so we will be leaning with the better arm.
Astros vs Phillies: Astros
Astros win probability: 44%
Both arms in this matchup have been great over their last five outings, while neither offense has posted a wRC+ above 90 in quite some time.
Why pay the juice in this spot? Take the dog.
Twins vs Tigers: Tigers
Tigers win probability: 56%
Pay the juice! It is the Tigers or nothing here.
Sure, the Tigers’ bats have cooled down as of late, but Dean Kremer has been brutal in his most recent outings, posting a 7.43 ERA and 1.80 WHIP while allowing a 47%+ hard-hit rate and 14% barrel rate over his last three starts.
Batters-Box has Kremer owning the worst pitcher rating on the day in its current season dataset.
Full fade on Kremer.
Mets vs Marlins: Marlins
Marlins win probability: 54%
Simple fade on Sean Manaea, who has progressively gotten worse with each start. Over his last five outings, he owns a 5.87 ERA while allowing a barrel rate above 15%. Over his last three, those numbers jump to a 7.79 ERA and nearly an 18% barrel rate. The Marlins’ bats should be able to get after the veteran early and often.
Angels vs Red Sox: Angels
Angels win probability: 44%
Back the dog here. It is going to be sweaty with how poorly the Angels’ bats have been, but Patrick Sandoval has been horrible in his last five starts, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP while allowing a 10%+ barrel rate to opposing hitters.
Meanwhile, Reid Detmers has been nails, allowing little to no hard contact over his last five outings while owning a 0.82 ERA.
Get filthy. Back the Halos.
Rockies vs Yankees: Rockies
Rockies win probability: 25%
Will the Yankees likely win this ballgame with Cam Schlittler on the bump and the juice that getting Aaron Judge back will bring? Likely, yes.
However, at that price? No.
The Rockies have posted a 114 wRC+, .353 wOBA, and .808 OPS over the last week. Maybe these bats can come alive against the potential AL Cy Young winner.
Rays vs Braves: Rays
Rays win probability: 49%
Small sample size, but Braves starter AJ Smith-Shawver has been pretty bad since returning. He owns a 7.13 ERA and 1.75 WHIP while facing one of the most consistent lineups in baseball.
Sure, Freddy Peralta is on the bump for Tampa Bay, but he has been very solid in his last three starts, posting a 2.84 ERA and just a 0.68 WHIP.
Take the dog.
Diamondbacks vs Royals: Royals
Royals win probability: 48%
We have no idea what to expect from Corbin Burnes this evening, as he is making his 2026 debut after being out for more than a year due to injury.
However, one thing we do know is Michael Wacha has been holding it down, sporting a 1.71 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over his last three starts. On top of that, the Royals’ bats have been hot for more than three weeks now, while Arizona is frozen at the dish.
Cubs vs Brewers: Brewers
Brewers win probability: 66%
Do we want to trust Jacob Misiorowski or David Peterson this evening? Such a tough debate, right? We’re debating whether to take a guy with a 6.14 ERA over his last three starts or a guy with a 3.94 ERA.
If you haven’t picked up on the sarcasm yet, it is the Brewers or nothing. I refuse to get in front of the Misiorowski freight train.
Pirates vs White Sox: White Sox
White Sox win probability: 57%
The South Siders should be able to tee off on Bubba Chandler early and often, as he is mainly throwing fastballs, and this White Sox team foams at the mouth for four-seam fastballs. Especially Munetaka Murakami, who needs a guy like this to snap out of his cold streak.
Sean Burke has been great, and if he can limit the walks, he should be able to keep his team in this.
Rangers vs Mariners: Rangers
Rangers win probability: 44%
Neither starter in this matchup has been putting up great numbers over their last few outings, but one offense has been producing more than the other. Sure, Seattle has been heating up, but the Rangers have been much hotter.
Texas owns a 122 wRC+, .346 wOBA, and .791 OPS over its last 12 games.
Take the dog.
Blue Jays vs A's: Blue Jays
Blue Jays win probability: 62%
The Blue Jays have to keep their heads down if they want a chance at the postseason. These are games they have to win.
Their bats have been pretty hot as of late, which is good news for Toronto, as Jack Perkins owns a 7.04 ERA at home.
Toronto will also need Jose Soriano to be nails this evening.
Stay hungry, Toronto.
Nationals vs Padres: Padres
Padres win probability: 63%
Unless this is a brand-new Matt Waldron, I want no part of backing him to hold anything down this evening. The Nationals right-hander owns a 5.63 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over his last five starts.
Casey Mize has not been much better for San Diego, but we know he is nails at home, with a 2.98 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
Plus, the Padres’ bullpen is light-years better than Washington’s.
Give me the favorite.
Cardinals vs Giants: Giants
Giants win probability: 50%
The hometown team is talking to me after the Giants walked it off last night against the Cardinals.
Tonight, they send out Landen Roupp, who has been pretty solid over his last few starts, limiting hard-hit balls.
On the other side, St. Louis has Quinn Mathews on the mound, who owns a 5.17 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his last three starts.
If the Giants can get after Mathews early and force him to go to the bullpen, which owns a 4.41 xERA on the season, they should be able to open this game up early.
Reds vs Dodgers: Dodgers
Dodgers win probability: 74%
Nick Lodolo has an 8.10 ERA, 8.04 xERA, and 2.02 WHIP while allowing a 53%+ hard-hit rate and nearly a 15% barrel rate over his last three starts. This Dodgers lineup should be able to feast on Lodolo’s offerings this evening.
Tarik Skubal should be able to cool off the red-hot Reds bats. Take the home favorite.
“But bu- you said not to pay this much juice.”
Lodolo has been far worse than Rockies starter Gabriel Hughes. That is the difference.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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