The weekend starts now for a lot of us, so let's act like it!
Here are my MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Thursday's nine-game MLB slate, with multiple underdogs like the Angels and Padres on the ticket.
MLB moneyline picks for July 2
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Piratesvs  Phillies |
+117 |
 Redsvs  Brewers |
-186 |
 Marlinsvs  Rockies |
+117 |
 White Soxvs  Guardians |
-111 |
 Cardinalsvs  Braves |
+104 |
 Raysvs  Royals |
-115 |
 Tigersvs  Rangers |
-117 |
 Angelsvs  Mariners |
+194 |
 Padresvs  Dodgers |
+174 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-2.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 2
Pirates vs Phillies: Pirates (+117)
Pirates win probability: 46%
Coming off getting demolished by the Phillies last night, I want to take a shot on the Rally Rats.
Overall, their offense has been outstanding over the last month, posting a 133 wRC+, .356 wOBA, and .814 OPS. Their biggest issue, and what got them into trouble last night, is that they strike out a ton.
Give me the value here, and go Pirates.
Reds vs Brewers: Brewers (-186)
Brewers win probability: 65%
Folks, Jacob Misiorowski is on the mound this afternoon for the Brewers, and I am not about to get in front of this freight train trying to back the Reds at plus money.
Cincinnati owns a 28% strikeout rate over its last 12 games, along with a 79 wRC+ and a .133 ISO. What about that makes me want to chase the plus money?
On the other side, the Brewers' offense has been rolling lately, consistently putting pressure on opposing pitching and swinging the bats with confidence. With Milwaukee playing great baseball on both sides, I would happily lay the run line.
Marlins vs Rockies: Rockies (+117)
Rockies win probability: 46%
On this episode of "Two Horrible Arms," I want the Rockies at plus money as they take on Ryan Gusto. The Miami right hander owns a 7.20 road ERA this season, along with a 2.00 WHIP, while allowing a ton of barrels and hard contact.
Sure, Michael Lorenzen has not exactly been "Mr. Reliable" either, but I am willing to take the chance on an offense that has been humming at the dish. At plus money, I will gladly roll the dice.
Give me the Rockies.
White Sox vs Guardians: White Sox (-111)
White So win probability: 52%
This one is tricky. White Sox ace Davis Martin has hit a bit of a rough patch, while Slade Cecconi has really turned things around. The White Sox offense has been humming, while the Guardians have been frozen solid.
Once again, I am riding with the White Sox. Martin's expected ERA over his last three starts sits at 3.14, so I think better outings are ahead. More importantly, I am not forcing a plus-money play on an ice-cold offense.
Cardinals vs Braves: Cardinals (+104)
Cardinals win probability: 49%
I am not backing the Braves until they turn things around. Over their last 21 games, they own a 65 wRC+, .262 wOBA, .584 OPS, and a .106 ISO. There is simply no reason for me to trust this offense right now.
I will happily take the plus money with the Cardinals.
Rays vs Royals: Rays (-115)
Rays win probability: 54%
The Rays are the play.
Stephen Kolek owns a 5.54 ERA over his last five starts. Over his last three, that number jumps to 6.43, along with a 4.86 xERA and a 1.79 WHIP.
I think Junior Caminero leaves the yard again tonight, making it seven straight games with a home run. He and this Rays offense are scorching-hot right now, and I am not about to step in front of that.
Tigers vs Rangers: Rangers (-117)
Rangers win probability: 54%
The Tigers are fake hot. They are coming off a series against a lifeless Yankees team, and now they have to face a Rangers club that is playing legitimately good baseball.
Nathan Eovaldi has been nails in his recent starts, and despite missing several key bats, the Rangers' offense has continued to produce.
Angels vs Mariners: Angels (+194)
Angels win probability: 34%
Value play.
Bryce Miller has been unstoppable this season, but I am not going to overlook Walbert Urena's expected ERA, which sits at 2.90 over his last five starts. I think he can do enough to keep this ice cold Mariners offense in check.
Neither lineup is swinging the bat particularly well right now, and we are getting nearly +200 on the underdog. At that price, I will gladly take the 'dog
Padres vs Dodgers: Padres (+174)
Padres win probability: 36%
Similar to the Angels matchup, I like the value on the Padres.
Offensively, they have been seeing the ball really well. Sure, they just got torched by the Cubs, but I think they are more than capable of bouncing back tonight.
Roki Sasaki has been struggling, and while Randy Vasquez has had his issues as well, his numbers on the road have been far better than they have been at home. I trust him to do enough to give this offense a chance.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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