The Cleveland Guardians will host the second game of a three-game series vs. the New York Mets tonight and with a pitching duel of Adrian Houser vs. Carlos Carrasco, bettors should be combing all pitcher markets as neither starter is projected to get deep.
With Houser’s markets already being hit as he’s making the move from the bullpen to a starter today, that leaves Carrasco’s markets to fade in my Mets vs. Guardians predictions. Considering his short leash, his Under outs and strikeouts are both looking like solid +EV plays.
I dive deeper into why Carrasco is in for trouble in my MLB picks for Tuesday, May 21.
Mets vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Carlos Carrasco Under 4.5 strikeouts (-145 at DrafKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
We already released Under 2.5 strikeouts at +132 for New York Mets right-hander Adrian Houser this morning on the Covers MLB Prop show and the market has become a little more efficient. That’s ok today, as Carlos Carrasco’s Unders also project incredibly well.
The right-hander has gone 18 outs just twice over nine starts this year and threw just 75 pitches across 15 outs in his last turn vs. the Rangers. He wasn’t pitching poorly, allowing just two runs, but that seems to be his leash and THE BAT is projecting 84 pitches today.
The Mets boast an average strikeout rate on the season so it’s not even a good matchup for the Cleveland pitcher. His K total is 4.5 but heavily juiced to the Under at -145. However, with a projection of 3.59, the Under is a great spot despite the tax.
Books are struggling to price his total outs with some books at 17.5 and others are at 16.5. Covers prop projections are sitting at Under 15 total outs. His Under 17.5 outs is also juiced at -140 while the Under 16.5 is at -110. This is a price play now with all three bets showing value. If -140 is too much juice, the Under 16.5 outs at -110 is perhaps the best route here.
I’m happy to lean into the tough K% matchup for Carrasco and am betting the Under 4.5 Ks at -145, which is a great price considering other books are as short as -170. The Mets offense has also been lackluster of late, so that pushes me toward the Ks rather than the outs.
There might only be 15 outs available for Carrasco today and this is a number he's hit the Under in six of his nine starts and just once over his last five starts.
Mets vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Carlos Carrasco Under 4.5 strikeouts
Adrian Houser Under 3.5 strikeouts
Guardians moneyline
It's easy to fade both pitchers today and although I like Carrasco Under 16.5/17.5 outs, I left it out of this as the correlated play because it didn't boost the odds enough. Money has come in on the Guardians, who have the starting pitching advantage while also being one of the most underrated teams in baseball in terms of pricing, hence why the market has moved 20 points since opening. Cleveland also has one of the best bullpens in baseball and this game will be won late.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Guardians odds
Mets vs Guardians live odds
Mets vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-210) | Cleveland -1.5 (+175
- Moneyline: New York -105 | Cleveland -115
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)
Mets vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Guardians have seen some money as the home side has moved from -115 to -135. The Over 9 has also moved from -110 to -120.
- The starting pitching matchup is driving the move on the ML and the Over as Houser's last two appearances have come out of the bullpen where he threw 41 and 32 pitches. He'll be working on five days of rest, though.
- There is a 14% chance of rain but it doesn't seem to be as big a concern as with some other East Coast games.
- At 31-17 SU, the Guardians have been one of the most profitable teams in the league netting flat bettors 12.71 units on the season. The Mets are in the other group as they've lost flat bettors over four units this year thanks to their 21-26 SU record.
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Mets vs Guardians trend
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.40 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs Cardinals.
Mets vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, BSGL |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Adrian Houser (0-3, 7.44 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Carlos Carrasco (2-4, 5.16 ERA) |
Mets vs Guardians latest injuries
Mets vs Guardians weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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