Marlins vs Cubs Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Today’s MLB Game

A.J. Puk's been a bit of a disaster as a Marlins starter, and our MLB picks think the Cubs bats will beat him up hook, line and sinker.

Apr 19, 2024 • 09:21 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Christopher Morel MLB
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The Chicago Cubs welcome the Miami Marlins to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field for afternoon action on the diamond.

Chicago will have 32-year-old righty Jameson Taillon toeing the rubber in his season debut, while converted reliever A.J. Puk will start for the Marlins against the North Siders. The Cubs are a sizable betting favorite and are battling for top spot in the NL Central. It’s just the opposite for the Marlins, as the Fish have sunk to the bottom of the NL East with a 4-15 record.

Here are our free MLB picks and Marlins vs. Cubs predictions for Friday, April 19.

Marlins vs Cubs prediction

My best bet
Cubs -1.5 run line (+120 at Pinnacle)

My analysis
Rewind a year, and Miami Marlins starter A.J. Puk was handling ninth-inning duties and closing out games. The lefty was stretched out this winter and joined the rotation with a number of Miami starters on the shelf.

The starting gig has flopped, and Puk sports a 5.91 ERA, 2.44 WHIP and a confidence-shattering 7.62 xFIP through 10.2 innings across his three 2024 starts. Righty bats also sport a healthy .392 wOBA against the southpaw, and the Chicago Cubs enter Friday’s bout with a MLB-high 148 wRC+ against lefties and a seventh-ranked 113 mark dating back to last season.

Chicago running out veteran righty Jameson Taillon could be the help the Fish need, though. Taillon is returning from a back injury that landed him on the 15-day injured list, and while he was sharp in his final tune-up with Triple-A Iowa, he only tossed 68 pitches across 3.2 scoreless innings.

Still, Miami has been a run-of-the-mill offense against righties with a 20th-ranked 89 wRC+, and overall the Fish have scored just 3.68 runs per game while ranking 29th in wOBA (.272).

Another edge I give the Cubbies is their discipline at the dish, with a sixth-ranked 10.0% BB%, and Puk has struggled with his control and sports a 11.81 BB/9. Look for the Cubs to be selective against Puk, and I don’t anticipate him pitching deep into Friday’s game. Of course, this sets up the final blow for the Fish, with Miami ranking 29th in reliever ERA (5.87) and 25th xFIP (4.59).

Marlins vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)

Cubs -1.5 run line

Christopher Morel Over 1.5 total bases

Christopher Morel is reeling along a 1-for-26 run across the past seven games, so a shaky southpaw sets up perfectly for a slump-busting showing. He’s teed up lefties to the tune of a .370 wOBA, 134 wRC+ and .320 ISO with a 46.7 hard-hit percentage and 25.0 HR/FB rate dating back to last season. 

I also value this bet365 same-game parlay because it’s priced at just +271 at FanDuel, and the difference in odds has a positive expected value of 8% attached to the +300 bet365 number.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Marlins vs Cubs odds

Marlins vs Cubs live odds

Marlins vs Cubs opening odds

  • Run line: Miami +1.5 (-125) | Chicago -1.5 (+105)
  • Moneyline: Miami +145 | Chicago -170
  • Over/Under: Over 10.5 (-105) | Under 10.5 (-115)

Marlins vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis

  • There hasn’t been actionable movement to this moneyline since opening. Pinnacle has only moved the number a cent, and bet365 opened Chicago -170 and returned to that line after moving the price to -165 Thursday evening.

  • It’s worth noting FanDuel does have an outlier -162 low moneyline available as of Friday morning.

  • This total has been adjusted more than the moneyline, with bet365 opening at 10.5 (-105/-115) Thursday evening, and it’s now handing a 9.5 number with the same vig. 

Marlins vs Cubs trend

The Cubs have covered the run line in 36 of their last 68 games at home (+7.75 Units / 10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Cubs

Marlins vs Cubs game info

Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date: Friday, 4-19-2024
First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
TV: MLB Network
Marlins starting pitcher: A.J. Puk
(0-3, 5.91 ERA)
Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon
(0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Marlins vs Cubs latest injuries

Marlins vs Cubs weather

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