Nothing beats baseball from 2:20 p.m. ET, all the way to nearly midnight.
Let's dive into my three favorite MLB home run props for Wednesday's slate, headlined by Nationals' slugger CJ Abrams.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Aug. 5.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Yordan Alvarez |
+262 |
 Munetaka Murakami |
+250 |
 CJ Abrams |
+365 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +5703 |
Home run prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+262)
I mean, how can I pass up Houston Astros superstar Yordan Alvarez against newly acquired Blue Jays right-hander Jameson Taillon?
The former Cub has been tormented by left-handed hitters all season long. Over the last 30 lefties he's faced, they've produced a 23.8% barrel rate and 76.2% elevation rate while posting a .405 xBA, .735 xSLG, and .400 xwOBA.
Alvarez enters today with one of the highest matchup ratings of the day on Batters-Box while covering 100% of Taillon's pitch mix. Through 37 elite-rated games this season, the big fella has gone deep in 29.73% of them.
At home, that number jumps to nearly 40%, homering in seven of his 18 elite-rated games.
No matter how obvious this spot may seem, you can't overthink it. Alvarez has been on an absolute tear all season, and this is one of the best home run spots on the board.
Play this down to +225.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, Sportnet
Home run prediction: Munetaka Murakami (+250)
The most consistent and efficient bat in the Chicago White Sox lineup has easily been rookie sensation Munetaka Murakami.
Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Murakami has posted an .852 SLG, 1.252 OPS, .523 wOBA, and .519 ISO. He's also generated a 70.6% hard hit rate and nearly a 30% barrel rate during that span.
Murakami draws veteran Red Sox righty Sonny Gray, who has hit a few speed bumps over his last three starts. During that stretch, Gray owns a 5.00 ERA while allowing a 45% hard hit rate.
The last 30 left-handed hitters he's faced have produced a 43.5% hard-hit rate and 43.5% line-drive rate while posting a .605 xSLG and .361 xwOBA.
The White Sox star enters tonight with an elite Batters-Box rating, covering more than 84% of Gray's pitch mix. In his 22 elite-rated road games this season, Murakami has gone deep in nearly 32% of them.
I'd play this down to +225.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, NESN
Home run prediction: CJ Abrams (+365)
Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Andrew Painter has been struggling over his last few starts, especially when it comes to limiting hard contact.
Over his last three outings, he's allowed nearly a 44% hard-hit rate. The last 30 left-handed hitters he's faced have generated a 50% hard-hit rate, 20% barrel rate, and 60% elevation rate. During that stretch, they've also posted a .414 xBA, .833 xSLG, .390 xwOBA, and .444 ISO.
Washington Nationals star CJ Abrams stands out the most in this matchup. He not only covers 76% of Painter's pitch mix, but also enters with an elite Batters-Box rating. In his 20 elite-rated games this season, Abrams has homered five times.
Abrams has also been swinging it well against right-handed pitching. Over his last 30 at bats, he's posted a .583 SLG, 1.016 OPS, .440 wOBA, and .291 ISO.
I think this is a fantastic spot for the young slugger. I'd play this down to +300.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSP, NATS
- HR picks: 90-338, +3.7 units
Best home run combo for August 5
| Yordan Alvarez |
Trade Now +5703 |
| Munetaka Murakami |
|
| CJ Abrams |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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