It's the unofficial last week of summer, which might be depressing, but cashing some dingers and MLB player props is the medicine I need on a rainy Monday.
Carson Benge might be lefty-vs-lefty, but the reverse splits are showing a lot of value. Staying with the lefty-vs-lefty theme, Pete Crow-Armstrong's price is a green light today at a windy Wrigley Field.
These are my favorite home run props for Monday, Aug. 31.
MLB home run props for today
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Carson Benge
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Home run prediction: Carson Benge (11%)
Lefty Ian Seymour is a sneaky home run target today, and I'm looking at a lefty-on-lefty matchup that is much better on paper than most would assume.
Seymour is a reverse-splits pitcher, as lefties hit him for a better average and more power. Left-handed hitters go yard once every 15.8 batters against him, compared to once every 32 right-handed batters.
That's a great home run rate for left-handed hitters, who are almost always priced longer when facing southpaws. Finding reverse splits on either a pitcher or hitter can create value, and in this case, we have both.
Carson Benge is the home run target at a price more than 200 points higher than his average number. He's a left-handed bat who hits dingers against right-handers once every 36.4 batters, but that rate jumps to once every 28 batters against lefties this year.
His slugging splits are fairly even, and he might be the second-best hitter in the lineup over the last two weeks, with two homers.
It's a lefty-lefty matchup with a lot of value at this price once you look under the hood, even if the surface-level matchup is priced heavily in favor of the pitcher.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, SNY
Home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (25%)
It's another day of backing Pete Crow-Armstrong to go yard, and things are aligning for Monday.
Kyle Harrison's sub-3.00 ERA makes this look like a tough matchup on paper, but he gives up homers and has had multiple three-homer games.
The lefty-on-lefty matchup is another spot where the batter has no issues with the splits. PCA has better power numbers against left-handed pitching, while Harrison actually allows a worse average to left-handed hitters.
Crow-Armstrong has moved from 67% to 94% in the NL MVP odds because he's still raking, with a league-leading 10 homers over the last two weeks. Play to 29%.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, Brewers.TV
- HR picks: 33-168, -11.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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