It's the unofficial last week of summer, which might be depressing, but cashing some dingers and MLB player props is the medicine I need on a rainy Monday.
Carson Benge might be lefty-vs-lefty, but the reverse splits are showing a lot of value. Staying with the lefty-vs-lefty theme, Pete Crow-Armstrong's price is a green light today at a windy Wrigley Field.
Meanwhile, Aaron Nola is still on the hit list, and I'm adding the hottest Arizona bat at a legit price.
These are my favorite home run props for Monday, Aug. 31.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Carson Benge |
11% |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
25% |
 Lars Nootbaar |
14% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 262.15x |
Home run prediction: Carson Benge (11%)
Lefty Ian Seymour is a sneaky home run target today, and I'm looking at a lefty-on-lefty matchup that is much better on paper than most would assume.
Seymour is a reverse-splits pitcher, as lefties hit him for a better average and more power. Left-handed hitters go yard once every 15.8 batters against him, compared to once every 32 right-handed batters.
That's a great home run rate for left-handed hitters, who are almost always priced longer when facing southpaws. Finding reverse splits on either a pitcher or hitter can create value, and in this case, we have both.
Carson Benge is the home run target at a price more than 200 points higher than his average number. He's a left-handed bat who hits dingers against right-handers once every 36.4 batters, but that rate jumps to once every 28 batters against lefties this year.
His slugging splits are fairly even, and he might be the second-best hitter in the lineup over the last two weeks, with two homers.
It's a lefty-lefty matchup with a lot of value at this price once you look under the hood, even if the surface-level matchup is priced heavily in favor of the pitcher.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, SNY
Home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (25%)
It's another day of backing Pete Crow-Armstrong to go yard, and things are aligning for Monday.
Kyle Harrison's sub-3.00 ERA makes this look like a tough matchup on paper, but he gives up homers and has had multiple three-homer games.
The lefty-on-lefty matchup is another spot where the batter has no issues with the splits. PCA has better power numbers against left-handed pitching, while Harrison actually allows a worse average to left-handed hitters.
Crow-Armstrong has moved from 67% to 94% in the NL MVP odds because he's still raking, with a league-leading 10 homers over the last two weeks. Play to 29%.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, Brewers.TV
Home run prediction: Lars Nootbaar (14%)
Every five days, I need to bet on batters facing Aaron Nola to go deep. It's not an obsession; it's just good math.
His 32 home runs allowed now rank second in the league, and he sits among the Bottom 20 MLB starters in Barrel% since June 1. His form is decent, but he's still allowed a dinger in nine straight starts, with 13 total over 51 innings.
Lars Nootbaar at 14% is the ticket I want tonight. He's been Arizona's best bat over the last two weeks, leading the club in basically every offensive statistic while going yard three times, including twice over the weekend.
There is some pinch-hit risk against lefties, but he should be batting leadoff and get his four plate appearances, with three of them coming against Nola.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSP, DBacks.TV
- HR picks: 33-168, -11.8 units
Best home run combo for August 31
| Carson Benge |
Trade Now 262.15x |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
|
| Lars Nootbaar |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
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