The Tampa Bay Rays can punch their ticket to the World Series with a Game 6 win over the Cleveland Guardians at Tropicana Field on Monday, Oct. 19.
Tampa is the favorite ahead of the 8 p.m. first pitch, and star Junior Caminero headlines my favorite Guardians vs. Rays home run predictions and MLB picks for Game 6 tonight.
Meanwhile, Chris Hatfield expects the Rays to advance in his Guardians vs. Rays predictions.
Best Guardians vs Rays home run picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Chase DeLauter |
10% |
 Junior Caminero |
19% |
| Long shot: Travis Bazzana |
10% |
| 💲HR combo | 476x |
Guardians home run pick: Chase DeLauter
Tampa Bay Rays righty Freddy Peralta surrendered a healthy 1.42 HR/9 to left-handed hitters during the regular season, and Cleveland Guardians outfielder Chase DeLauter has posted a rock-solid 43.5% hard-hit rate and 16.7% blast-contact rate against righties this postseason.
Of course, Peralta’s 0.79 ERA across three playoff appearances is also miles below his 4.04 xERA and 5.37 xFIP.
Rays home run pick: Junior Caminero
Rays slugger Junior Caminero posted a solid .204 ISO against lefties and a .264 mark against righties during the regular season. Because Cleveland is going with a full bullpen game, I'm targeting his balanced platoon splits.
Caminero has also been limited to five singles through the first five games of the series despite a solid 44.4% hard-hit rate and 20.0% blast-contact rate, so he’s a go-to candidate to leave the yard tonight.
Long-shot home run pick: Travis Bazzana
Guardians rookie Travis Bazzana hit 13 of his 15 regular-season homers against righties with a .211 ISO. He’s also recorded a respectable .220 xISO this postseason alongside a 38.5% hard-hit rate and 15.1% blast-contact rate, so Bazzana has been dialed in at the dish.
As noted, Peralta has statistical correction ahead, and he’s allowed a healthy 15.4 barrel rate to left-handed hitters in the playoffs.
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Guardians vs Rays home run combo
With a game total of just 6.5 and only six home runs through the first five games of the ALCS, expectations of connecting on a three-leg, home-run combo should be held in check.
Still, Peralta gave up multiple homers six times during the regular season, and his 41.9% fly-ball rate was the 13th-highest mark among qualified starters.
All three hitters have solid underlying numbers dating back to the regular season, too.
- HR picks: 0-0, 0 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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