Toronto games have been a breeding ground for goals this season, so we're investing in the Over tonight as part of our Sharks vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
The Toronto Maple Leafs host the San Jose Sharks as 57% favorites at Novig, but we're trading the total with two high-powered offenses going head-to-head.
Tap into my NHL picks for Monday, Oct. 19, and let's build that bankroll.
TOP PICK
Sharks vs Maple Leafs prediction: Over 6.5
The math here is simple: both teams are abysmal in their own end, with the Toronto Maple Leafs and San Jose Sharks both ranking in the bottom 10 in expected goals against. Meanwhile, the offenses are dangerous, with both power plays ranking in the top 10 and clicking at 23% or better. Now that Macklin Celebrini is fully healthy for the Sharks, expect both teams to contribute.
It helps that the Sharks can, at times, play an undisciplined brand of hockey, averaging close to 10 minutes of penalties per game. What does that all add up to? An Over.
COVERS INTEL: Anthony Stolarz is 42nd in goals saved above expected, with Yaroslav Askarov coming in at 47th. With two struggling netminders starting on Monday, it's easy for me to hit the button on the Over.
Sharks vs Maple Leafs combo
Kirill Marchenko is a flat-out stud, and he's really come into his own in his first few games as a Maple Leaf. He's been doing it all: he's creating offense and finishing it himself, punctuated by a hat trick two games ago. With the volume he'll see on the top line and first power play unit, I'll throw him in for an assist.
Elsewhere, Celebrini is 23rd in all of hockey in shots on goal per 60 - we'll ride with the superstar.
Sharks vs Maple Leafs combo
- Over 6.5
- Kirill Marchenko 1+ assist
- Macklin Celebrini 4+ shots
Sharks vs Maple Leafs player prop: Kirill Marchenko 1+ assist
Before Marchenko's hat-trick against the Buffalo Sabres, the Russian winger had recorded an assist in four straight games. Playing alongside one of the best goal-scorers in the NHL, Auston Matthews, helps our cause, too. He's a vital part of a power play that has scored nine times already this season - the fifth-most in the league.
He'll play as a bumper on the man advantage, and is vital down low; expect him to be all around the puck.
Sharks vs Maple Leafs goal scorer: Auston Matthews
Matthews has scored a goal in three of his last four games and is clearly all the way back after a down year.
We've cashed this play at a near 80% clip in the early parts of the season, and I see no reason to get cute here. With Matthews registering nearly five high-danger shot attempts per 60, I'll invest in him to score his seventh of the campaign.
- Top picks: 5-6, -0.87 units
- Combos: 5-5, +4.50 units
Sharks vs Maple Leafs odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Sharks 44% | Maple Leafs 57%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (54%) | Under 6.5 (47%)
- Spread: Sharks +1.5 (66%) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (36%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Sharks vs Maple Leafs trend
The Over is 4-0 in the Maple Leafs' last four following a loss of two or more goals. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Sharks vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Arena, City, State |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 19, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | STATION |
Sharks vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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