MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Sunday, August 24

Tony Sartori breaks down Sunday's MLB slate and offers his favorite MLB home run predictions, including Shohei Ohtani and Paul Goldschmidt.

Tony Sartori - Contributor at Covers.com
Tony Sartori • Betting Analyst
Aug 24, 2025 • 08:25 ET • 4 min read
New York Yankees first base Paul Goldschmidt (48) hits an RBI single.
Photo By - Imagn Images. New York Yankees first base Paul Goldschmidt (48) hits an RBI single.

There is a full 15-game MLB slate on Sunday, with plenty of player props to choose from.

I have compiled my three best home run props for Sunday. As always, monitor the odds and available pricing, as the player prop market is constantly changing.

Here are my free MLB player props and home run picks for Sunday, August 24.

Best MLB home run props today

  • TEAM Shohei Ohtani (+190)
  • TEAM Trent Grisham (+425)
  • TEAM Paul Goldschmidt (+600)
  • 💲 +8600 parlay💲

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HR Prop #1: Shohei Ohtani

+190 at DraftKings

The San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the afternoon portion of Sunday’s MLB slate. Los Angeles’ Shohei Ohtani is always a strong candidate to add to your MLB picks.

He ranks third in Major League Baseball in home runs and sits in the 99th percentile or higher in expected slugging percentage (xSLG), average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. That success is likely to continue against right-hander Nick Pivetta, who takes the mound for San Diego.

Ohtani has homered twice in 14 at-bats against Pivetta, posting a .929 slugging percentage over that stretch.

HR Prop #2: Trent Grisham

+425 at DraftKings

ESPN’s “Sunday Night Baseball” features the New York Yankees hosting the Boston Red Sox. Right-hander Dustin May takes the mound for Boston and should serve as a strong fade candidate.

Through 22 appearances this season, May is 7-9 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. His underlying metrics are even worse, as he carries a 4.81 xERA and .264 xBA.

May also ranks in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. New York’s Trent Grisham is as good a candidate as any to take advantage, especially considering he has previously homered off May.

HR Prop #3: Paul Goldschmidt

+600 at DraftKings

Another Yankees hitter to consider Sunday is Paul Goldschmidt. While Goldschmidt hasn’t had a standout season, he does have a solid track record against May.

Through six plate appearances against the right-hander, Goldschmidt owns an .800 slugging percentage and a .693 expected slugging percentage.

May also enters this contest in poor form, having surrendered nine home runs over his past nine starts. Over that span, he’s gone 3-5 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

Today’s HR parlay

Shohei Ohtani

Trent Grisham

Paul Goldschmidt

Today’s most popular HR bets

  1. Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
  2. Juan Soto, Dodgers
  3. Cal Raleigh, Mariners

Betting info courtesy of DraftKings

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Tony Sartori - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.

Due to the variety of sports he covers, Tony is handicapping every day. If he had one piece of betting advice for a new sports bettor, it would be to strictly enforce bankroll management rules for yourself. If you set aside $10,000 for your betting bankroll, then you should generally only be betting between $100 - $500 per play.

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