2023 Home Run Derby Odds and Picks: Robert No Fluke as Top Seed

Today's the day. The field is set for the 2023 Home Run Derby, perhaps the keynote event of MLB's annual All-Star break.

There is a mix of talent including some staples from previous derbies to go along with some fresh faces for the event. Though neither league's leader in home runs (Shohei Ohtani from the AL, Matt Olson from the NL) will be represented, there are still some big boppers taking part.

????DINGER PROPS???? #HRDerby pic.twitter.com/YJ2EUkEJ68

— Andrew Caley (@Covers_Caley) July 10, 2023

And it's no surprise to see New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso enter as the betting favorite having won twice before (2019, 2021).

Will Alonso become a three-time winner after coming up short in 2022? Let's break down the MLB odds for the 2023 Home Run Derby, scheduled for Monday, July 10 at 8 p.m. ET. And don't forget to check out Andrew Caley's Home Run Derby props column.

Odds to win the 2023 Home Run Derby

Player	Team	2023 HRs	Odds to win
Pete Alonso	New York Mets	26	+310
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Toronto Blue Jays	13	+370
Luis Robert Jr.	Chicago White Sox	26	+500
Julio Rodriguez	Seattle Mariners	13	+500
Adolis Garcia	Texas Rangers	23	+700
Randy Arozarena	Tampa Bay Rays	16	+1,000
Mookie Betts	Los Angeles Dodgers	26	+1,100
Adley Rutschman	Baltimore Orioles	12	+1,800

Odds courtesy of DraftKings on July 10, 2023.

2023 MLB Home Run Derby first-round matchups

• Luis Robert (1) vs. Adley Rutschman (8)
• Pete Alonso (2) vs. Julio Rodriguez (7)
• Mookie Betts (3) vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (6)
• Adolis Garcia (4) vs. Randy Arozarena (5)

Seeds were determined by amount of home runs hit during the regular season through July 4. 

2023 MLB Home Run Derby field and favorites

While some players shy away from the Home Run Derby — especially when it comes to repeat performances — because it might mess with their swing or their timing at the plate, New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso seems to live for this event. This marks the fourth consecutive year he's taken part. He won his first two attempts before falling to Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez in the semifinals last year.

Rodriguez — who gets a possible hometown advantage with the event being hosted in Seattle — hit by far the most dingers in last year's tournament with 81 but most of those came in the first two rounds before falling to Juan Soto in the finals. Soto isn't back to defend his title this year, and only one of these two returning sluggers will make it past the first round because they're matched up once more.

Oddsmakers aren't too bullish on J-Rod, but he does have the fourth-shortest odds to win the whole thing despite going up against the overall favorite in the opening round. Should Alonso outlast Rodriguez this time around, he could face another familiar foe in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the man he defeated in the 2019 finals to win his first Derby crown. Guerrero will first have to defeat Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Mookie Betts, who, despite having hit the third-most homers this year among competitors, has shorter odds than just two of his peers.

Betts is surprisingly making his first appearance, but so is the rest of the field. That includes top seed Luis Robert, who draws Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman in what looks like a potential gimmee, though regular-season pop can't always be used as a predictive force.

Finally, Adolis Garcia and Randy Arozarena round out the field in what might be the most swagger-filled matchup in the opening round.

Picks for 2023 Home Run Derby

Luis Robert (+450 — 0.75 units)

Alonso is the easy choice because of his experience, his overall enthusiasm for the event, and the fact that his 174 career homers at the event top the competition by a wide margin.

The problem is, he has a much tougher path to victory than our No. 1 overall seed. Alonso will have to defeat Rodriguez in the opening round and then topple either Guerrero or Betts. And while I know it's foolish to doubt anyone in this event, Rutschman hasn't really ever been touted as a power-first sort of hitter, and it gives Robert a distinct opening-round advantage and, as a result, tremendous value at +450.

Similarly, Robert is listed pretty low in the MLB run leader odds despite being tied for third (with Alonso) overall. He doesn't hit many cheapies, with his average home run distance being 406 feet. La Pantera has been one of baseball's hottest power hitters since June 1. Shohei Ohtani leads the majors with 16 homers in that time. Robert is next with 12. 

Getting the top overall seed at longer odds than two other hitters — both of whom are on the other side of the bracket — is just too much value to pass up.

Pick: Luis Robert to win (+450 at DraftKings) 

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+370 — 0.25 units)

I'm dropping less of a share on Guerrero because his side of the bracket is simply so daunting — and that includes his opening opponent in Betts, who I think is being undersold based on his less overtly powerful stature.

But, while Vladito has disappointed as an in-game home run hitter this season — not hitting his first homer at not-exactly-pitcher-friendly Rogers Centre until June 23 — he has still hit the absolute stitching off the ball when he's made contact this season. Only three players have a higher average exit velocity than Vlad's 94.5 mph, and none of them are in this competition. Only Ronald Acuna Jr. has more batted balls that have exceeded 95 mph off the bat than Vlad this season. 

He still pounds the ball into the ground more than you'd like, but you have to count on a different approach in an event such as this. Guerrero holds the single-derby record for home runs from when he mashed 91 (!) in 2019 and only lost because he needed 40 in the semis to defeat Joc Pederson and could only muster 22 in the finals vs. Alonso.

The name of the game is to hit the ball hard and far, and despite being one of the favorites, there's still value on backing him.

Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to win (+370 at DraftKings)

Picks made on Thursday, July 6.

Home Run Derby trends

• Only five players have won the Home Run Derby and recorded the most home runs in the regular season in the same year.
• The Home Run Derby champion has come from the National League for the past five years.
• The Home Run Derby title has been shared by two players twice in the event’s history (1986, 1989).
• Ken Griffey Jr., Yoenis Cespedes, and Pete Alonso are the only players to successfully defend their Home Run Derby title in back-to-back years.

MLB Home Run Derby FAQ

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