Sunday's 15-game MLB slate offers strong underdogs and solid short favorites we can attack and hopefully add to our bankrolls.
Read on for my MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 13.
MLB moneyline picks for September 13
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Rockiesvs  Tigers |
42% |
 Angelsvs  Nationals |
50% |
 Royalsvs  Red Sox |
42% |
 Metsvs  Yankees |
38% |
 Philliesvs  Braves |
48% |
 Oriolesvs  Blue Jays |
56% |
 Astrosvs  Rays |
42% |
 Dodgersvs  Marlins |
58% |
 Guardiansvs  Twins |
46% |
 Redsvs  Brewers |
42% |
 White Soxvs  Cardinals |
47% |
 Piratesvs  Cubs |
55% |
 Marinersvs  Athletics |
42% |
 Rangersvs  Diamondbacks |
46% |
 Padresvs  Giants |
55% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of September 13.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 13
Rockies vs Tigers: Rockies
Rockies win probability: 42%
Detroit's offense has cratered over the last 14 days (84 wRC+, 27.2% K%), giving Gabriel Hughes a far softer landing spot than Jackson Jobe's market tax implies. Backing Colorado capitalizes on Detroit's hollow lineup production and a Tigers bullpen leaking baserunners with a 4.35 SIERA and 11.1% walk rate.
Angels vs Nationals: Angels
Angels win probability: 50%
Grayson Rodriguez brings significant bat-missing upside against a depleted Washington lineup scuffling with an 80 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Washington's bullpen has completely imploded (7.97 ERA, 4.54 SIERA, 11.9% BB%), leaving Jake Irvin with zero margin for error in an even-money pick'em spot.
Royals vs Red Sox: Royals
Royals win probability: 42%
Boston's bats are punching out at a 23.5% clip with a 93 wRC+ over the last fortnight, while their bullpen continues to leak oil (6.04 ERA, 3.66 SIERA, 1.60 HR/9). Noah Cameron matches up well against an undisciplined Red Sox order, making Kansas City a strong, plus-money play.
Mets vs Yankees: Mets
Mets win probability: 38%
The market is pricing Cam Schlittler like an established ace, but the Mets offense enters firing on all cylinders (122 wRC+, .343 OBP, .192 ISO over the last 14 days). Christian Scott gives the Mets competitive early innings, and grabbing this price on the hotter lineup provides clear standalone value in the Subway Series.
Phillies vs Braves: Phillies
Phillies win probability: 48%
Atlanta's lineup ranks dead last across MLB over the past two weeks (76 wRC+, .279 OBP), severely blunting whatever edge Grant Holmes might carry. Andrew Painter's raw stuff presents a nightmare matchup for a slumping Braves order, and Philadelphia's bullpen edge (3.61 SIERA to Atlanta's 3.39 SIERA with superior walk prevention) makes the Phillies the sharper side.
Orioles vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays
Blue Jays win probability: 56%
Dylan Cease commands a massive starting pitching advantage over Trevor Rogers, who faces a Toronto offense clicking with a 113 wRC+ and a minuscule 18.0% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Backed by a dominant Toronto bullpen sporting a 2.03 ERA and 3.33 SIERA, laying the juice on the Jays is the sharp play against an Orioles offense sitting at an 87 wRC+.
Astros vs Rays: Astros
Astros win probability: 42%
Freddy Peralta demands a premium, but Tampa Bay's bullpen is a glaring weak link right now, carrying a 4.71 SIERA and an alarming 12.4% walk rate over the last two weeks. Hayden Wesneski keeps Houston alive through the middle frames, and catching plus-money on Houston against an unstable Rays bullpen is a wise play.
Dodgers vs Marlins: Dodgers
Dodgers win probability: 58%
Eury Pérez is a formidable starter, but Miami's offense has regressed into heavy swing-and-miss territory (23.6% K%), while their relief unit walks 13.6% of batters with a 5.26 ERA (4.48 SIERA). Justin Wrobleski is backed by a solid Dodgers lineup (113 wRC+, 12.4% BB%) and a lockdown bullpen (3.35 SIERA), warranting the juice.
Guardians vs Twins: Guardians
Guardians win probability: 46%
Tanner Bibee matches up evenly with Joe Ryan, but the separation lies in the late innings, where Cleveland's bullpen leads the AL with an elite 2.95 SIERA, 21.1% K-BB%, and 5.8% walk rate. With Minnesota's bats flatlining at a league-average 100 wRC+, Cleveland is a mispriced underdog.
Reds vs Brewers: Reds
Reds win probability: 42%
Milwaukee's bullpen is in disarray, sitting dead last in MLB over the last two weeks with a 4.95 SIERA, 5.70 FIP, and a disastrous 4.8% K-BB%. Chase Burns possesses the raw strikeout profile to neutralize Milwaukee's bats, making Shane Drohan and the vulnerable Brewers pen heavily overvalued on Sunday.
White Sox vs Cardinals: Cardinals
Cardinals win probability: 47%
Chicago's bats have produced an abysmal .192 batting average and an 80 wRC+ over the last 14 days, placing immense pressure on Sean Burke to work deep. Michael McGreevy gets the benefit of a far superior St. Louis offensive unit (108 wRC+, .330 OBP) and a bullpen capable of missing bats (26.8% K%, 3.51 SIERA), making the Cardinals an attractive home underdog.
Pirates vs Cubs: Cubs
Cubs win probability: 55%
The Cubs offense is the hottest lineup in baseball right now, pacing the majors over the last two weeks with a 140 wRC+, .871 OPS, and .229 ISO. While Bubba Chandler is a high-ceiling prospect, Matthew Boyd's veteran craftiness, backed by Chicago's thunderous offense, makes the Cubs a strong target at 55%.
Mariners vs Athletics: Athletics
Athletics win probability: 42%
Bryce Miller is carrying heavy market helium, but Seattle's lineup is striking out 24.8% of the time with an anemic .129 ISO (99 wRC+) and a bullpen struggling to a 4.05 SIERA and 1.87 HR/9. The A's offense has generated legitimate pop (.180 ISO, 103 wRC+) and their bullpen boasts a sharp 3.42 SIERA, making them a prime home dog.
Rangers vs Diamondbacks: Rangers
Rangers win probability: 46%
Texas has swung the bats exceptionally well over the last 14 days (117 wRC+, .188 ISO), while Arizona's offense has stalled out at a 79 wRC+ and .344 SLG. Cal Quantrill should pitch with an early lead against Eduardo Rodriguez, allowing Texas to cash this road underdog play.
Padres vs Giants: Padres
Padres win probability: 55%
Nick Pivetta and Logan Webb should engage in a tight pitchers' duel, but the game swings decisively once it reaches the bullpens. San Diego's bullpen ranks No. 1 in baseball over the last 14 days with a pristine 2.87 SIERA and a 30.6% strikeout rate, whereas San Francisco's pen sits at a soft 4.46 SIERA, giving the Padres substantial value tonight.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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