Kyle Schwarber still sits atop the MLB home run title odds and the MLB leaderboards with 40 long balls.
His status as the favorite seems a bit overblown, as his lead is hardly insurmountable with a month left to play.
Below, we'll look at the MLB odds for the season's home run leader as the calendar flips from August to September.
- Key Takeaways:
- Schwarber more vulnerable than odds suggest
- Where is PCA?
- Olson among those chasing
Odds to win 2026 MLB home run title
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Kyle Schwarber |
65% |
 Yordan Alvarez |
9% |
 Matt Olson |
5% |
 Junior Caminero |
4% |
 Munetaka Murakami |
1% |
 Ben Rice |
1% |
Odds last updated on 9-1. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $20 trading bonus when you deposit at least $10 as a new user.
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Home run title favorite
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (65%)
Kyle Schwarber hit his 20th home run in mid-May. He's hit just 20 more since then and is an overwhelming favorite to lead MLB in round trippers with a month left to go.
His longest dry spell came when he hit just one home run over 23 games from July 9 through Aug. 8. He's hit seven homers in his last 95 plate appearances, and his .550 slugging percentage in that time outpaces his season total. But let's not forget how historic his season looked from the outset.
Schwarber hit his 19th and 20th homers on May 15. At that time, he was slugging a bananas .645. He just hasn't been as prolific in the intervening months.
In fact, from July 1 onward, Schwarber is tied for 26th in MLB in home runs with 10. That's two fewer than Cal Raleigh, Nolan Arenado, and various others in that time.
I don't see the logic in picking him at 65% probability when he doesn't have a commanding lead.
Players to watch
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs
For whatever reason, Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is not listed as an option at Polymarket to lead MLB in home runs.
PCA has more homers than anyone else since July 1, with 20 in 244 plate appearances. The MLB MVP odds leader in the National League has 38 for the season, trailing Schwarber by two. He needs to be on here, and his odds need to be comparable.
Matt Olson, Braves (5%)
After PCA, Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson is next, with 17 home runs in 55 games since July 1. Overall, he has 37 long balls, tied for third with Yordan Alvarez and Junior Caminero.
Olson has hit a bit of a dry spell lately, though, going yard just once since Aug. 17 (14 games). But he closed the gap before, and unless Schwarber starts teeing off soon, the door is open for a contender to walk on through.
Covers MLB betting tools
Recent single-season home run leaders
Here are the last 10 home run champions:
| Year | Player (No. of home runs) |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Cal Raleigh (60) |
| 2024 | Aaron Judge (58) |
| 2023 | Matt Olson (54) |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge (62) |
| 2021 |  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. &  Salvador Perez (48) |
| 2020 | Luke Voit (22) |
| 2019 |  Pete Alonso (53) |
| 2018 |  Khris Davis (48) |
| 2017 |  Giancarlo Stanton (59) |
| 2016 |  Mark Trumbo (47) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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MLB HR Leader FAQ
Philadelphia Phillies OF Kyle Schwarber is favored to lead MLB in home runs this season.
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh became the 10th player to hit 60 home runs in a single season en route to leading MLB in long balls.
New York Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton is the active leader with 456 career long balls. Mike Trout (424), Manny Machado (393), Bryce Harper (390) and Paul Goldschmidt (390) are next in line.
The last player to lead the majors in home runs in back-to-back seasons is Jose Bautista, who hit 54 in 2010 and 43 in 2011 as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays.
