The weather is now heating up as we head into June — and so is the MLB home run race for 2023!
It's no surprise that reigning home run king Aaron Judge is near the top of the MLB futures odds for long balls once again... but he's back on the IL, clearing the path to his New York counterpart to further cement his spot as the favorite — while the HR race is also starting to get a little fishy...
See who's ahead of Judge — and who else is in the race — with our latest MLB odds to win the home run title.
Odds to win 2023 MLB home run title
|Fernando Tatis Jr.||11||+850||+3,000||+800|
|Ronald Acuna Jr.||12||+4,400||+1,800||+3,300|
Odds and stats as of June 7, 2023
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Latest MLB HR title analysis
6/7/2023: Reigning home run king Aaron Judge went on a tear in May, hitting a league-high 12 homers in 21 games, but he started the month on the IL... and he's now back on the IL to start off June, so he remains second in the HR race — and second on the odds board to New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso, who also continues to mash and currently leads the league with 22 bombs.
Another guy that jumped up the odds board is Marlins slugger Jorge Soler, who also hit 12 dingers in May and is now tied for fourth with 17 long balls on the year, while Fernando Tatis Jr. is also in contention despite being 11 homers behind Alonso right now — a result of playing about 20 fewer games than everyone else (due to his suspension to start the year).
Previous MLB HR title action
5/18/2023: The favorite to lead the bigs in home runs this year still calls New York home... but it isn't reigning dinger king Aaron Judge — it's now his cross-town counterpart, New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso, who is the favorite at +280 and currently leads the league with 15 round-trippers.
Judge has come back red-hot since a brief IL stint, now sitting tied for sixth with 11 HR and second on the odds board at +360, with a large gap between the New York sluggers and everyone else — Dodgers slugger Max Muncy, who is second in the league with 14 dingers, is next at 11/1, followed by Matt Olson (11 HR) at 13/1 and then Mike Trout at +1,800. despite being further down the board with just nine long balls thus far.
Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez went down on the odds board quite a bit, dropping from 12/1 (and third on the board) about a month ago... to his current 25/1 price, as he also sits with nine dingers on the year.
4/24/2023: Aaron Judge is still the betting favorite to win the home run title, but he's got some tight company from across town, as New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso has gone from 7/1 to +350, as he's second in the majors with 10 home runs already.
Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez went from fourth on the odds board to third, although his odds actually dropped from 9/1 to 12/1, while the biggest jump comes from Dodgers lefty Max Muncy, who started the season well off the odds board but is now up to +1,600 as he leads the league with 11 long balls.
The most notable drop comes from Angels star Mike Trout, who dropped from +700 two weeks ago to 25/1 now, despite having five home runs in 20 games.
4/10/2023: It's still Aaron Judge's throne after his four home runs over just eight games. As a result, his odds have shortened from +450 to +320. Rafael Devers is tied with Judge, shrinking his odds from +3,500 to +2,700. Matt Olson also climbed significantly, going from +1,900 to +1,200. Meanwhile, the Twins' Byron Buxton tumbled from +3,500 to +8,000, and the Astros' Kyle Tucker went from +2,200 to +5,000.
3/28/2023: With Opening Day one sleep away, Aaron Judge still is the favorite to lead the Majors in dingers yet again, shortening to +450 after a strong Spring that only saw him hit two home runs, but post a .350 average as he looks locked in for another big season.There wasn't a ton of movement otherwise on the board, with the only other notable change being Atlanta's Ronald Acuna Jr. went from 20/1 to 18/1, leapfrogging teammate Matt Olson, who led all players with eight long balls during Spring Training.
3/20/2023:There's been slight movement atop the board, with the odds for both Judge and Trout falling to +550 and +850, respectively, as spring training winds down. A few newcomers sit toward the bottom of the board, too. Julio Rodriguez is an intriguing long shot at +3,000 after hitting 28 home runs over just 132 games en route to being named the AL Rookie of the Year in 2022. Ronald Acuna Jr. has also climbed up the board (+2,000). He's suffered injuries in recent seasons, but Acuna clubbed 41 dingers over 156 games in 2019.
2/20/2023: After hitting 62 home runs (and opening at +1,200) last season, DraftKings sportsbook has unsurprisingly installed Aaron Judge as the favorite heading into 2023. Except this time, the towering Yankees slugger (who has hit 52, 39, and 62 dingers in his three seasons playing at least 148 games) is just +600, a number that's also available at Caesars Sportsbook. After Judge comes arguably the best overall player in the game: Angels star Mike Trout (+800), who was tied for third in the majors with 40 home runs last season, just his third career 40+ HR campaign (albeit in just 119 games), while Mets star Pete Alonso (who also hit 40 HR in 2022), is third at +900, rounding out the trio of sluggers posted shorter than 10/1.
Home run title trends
- The home run title has been won by a player in the American League the past four seasons.
- Aaron Judge’s 62 home runs in 2022 made him just the second AL player to surpass 60 home runs in a season after Roger Maris in 1961.
- Babe Ruth holds the record for the most home run titles won by a player with 11.
- The last player to win back-to-back home run titles was Jose Bautista in 2010 and 2011.
Understanding MLB HR title betting odds
Betting MLB home run title odds is about as simple as it gets. You are just betting which player will end the regular season with the most home runs in the MLB. HR title betting futures are usually shown in American style odds and usually look like this:
- Mike Trout +800
This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $800 if Trout wins the MLB home run title. Now, most of these markets close when the season starts. But some sportsbooks may post updated odds at different points in the season, and if one player has a large lead in home runs you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of their odds:
- Aaron Judge -110
This means that you would need to bet $110 to win $100 on Judge winning the MLB home run title. If you want to see the odds in a different format check out our odds converter tool.
MLB HR Leader FAQ
Mets 1B Pete Alonso the consensus betting favorite to lead the MLB in HR, followed by Yankees OF Aaron Judge.
Yankees OF Aaron Judge hit an AL record 62 home runs to lead the majors in 2022, while Phillies OF Kyle Schwarber led the NL with 46.
Following Albert Pujols' retirement at the end of the 2022 season, Miguel Cabrera is the current active leader with 507 home runs.
The last player to lead the majors in home runs in back-to-back seasons is Jose Bautista, who hit 54 in 2010 and 43 in 2011 as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays.