The best Monday on the sports calendar is finally here! The Home Run Derby brings out the kid in all of us, and hopefully it will bring out the beast in Jordan Walker.
My Home Run Derby predictions and favorite looks have extracted the best value possible in the Home Run Derby odds.
Let's dive into my top MLB picks for July 13.
Best MLB Home Run Derby predictions
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jordan Walker to win |
+733 |
 Willson Contreras to win |
+1900 |
 Jac Caglianone to reach the final round |
+285 |
| ⚾ Longest Home Run: 500+ feet | +122 |
Our top MLB Home Run Derby picks for Monday, July 13
Jordan Walker to win
I kind of have a type when it comes to the Home Run Derby. DO NOT SHAME ME! I like the big boys.
I want guys who have raw, natural power, and Jordan Walker has all of that and more. The younger stars are always a draw for me because I want to see them leave their mark and make a bigger name for themselves.
The St. Louis Cardinals' 6-foot-6, 250-pound outfielder, who is sitting on a career-high 22 homers and counting, is easily one of my favorite looks in this event.
Willson Contreras to win
I always sprinkle on a long shot winner that has a ton of upside, which Willson Contreras definitely has.
Typically, the long shot is a smaller guy, your Jazz Chisholm or Mookie Betts types. Guys who can absolutely crush home runs, but honestly probably aren't built for the Home Run Derby.
Personally, I think Ben Rice should be dead-last on the odds board, but unfortunately, I don't make the odds.
I was a little too eager to jump on Contreras and missed out on a great number. Near 20-to-1 odds is insane. I ended up grabbing 13-to-1 thinking I was being slick.
Contreras has all the raw power in the world to make a deep run, and is on pace to reach his career-high in dingers with 20 already at the unofficial halfway point of the season. So why take the chalk when there is a big body with legitimate power sitting at the bottom of the odds board?
Our best 2026 MLB Home Run Derby props
Jac Caglianone to reach the final round
I am already on Jac Caglianone to have the furthest hit home run in this event. All this guy does is generate hard-hit balls, and he is an absolute monster.
A part of me is concerned with some of these younger guys participating in this event. Will Walker or Caglianone be too eager to try and kill the ball instead of staying relaxed and taking their normal hacks?
However, there is no way I'm taking Kyle Schwarber, Junior Caminero, or Bryce Harper just because they have been here before. I think there is a ton of value in the Kansas City Royals' future star, as long as he stays calm and relaxed, and lets his natural power take over.
Longest home run: 500+ feet
Who doesn't want to see a 500-foot nuke missile? Losers, that's who.
Last season in Atlanta, we watched Pirates slugger Oneil Cruz launch a 513-foot home run. Back in 2017 in Miami, Aaron Judge matched that mark with a 513-footer of his own.
If you take out the 2021 Derby in Colorado, it's a much rarer feat. But with temperatures expected to be in the mid 80s tonight in Philadelphia, the conditions are there. This year's field is loaded with guys who generate ridiculous power and have the ability to send one 500+ feet, even without seeing 100 mph fastballs.
This is supposed to be fun. Enjoy it, root for moonshots, and let yourself feel like you're 10 years old again.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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