If the Toronto Blue Jays want to get serious about turning this season around, they must start winning more series against good baseball teams.
Luckily, the Jays will be given that opportunity to do that this weekend as they welcome the American League Central-leading Cleveland Guardians to town.
While the MLB odds have Toronto as the favorite for tonight’s opener, the focus of my Guardians vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks is squarely on the five-inning total.
Guardians vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Over 4.5 first five innings (-109 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays were once again unable to capitalize on some solid starting pitching in their series loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. Now they’ll jump from one Central division leader to another as they open a three-game set against the upstart Cleveland Guardians.
The Blue Jays are favored in this one for the lone fact that they hand the ball to Kevin Gausman, and even though he is coming off a strong start against the Oakland A’s, something hasn’t looked right with the former All-Star.
While Gausman hasn’t missed any time, he suffered an arm injury in spring training, and the velocity on his four-seam fastball has been down this season. As a result, the right-hander has been getting hit hard and often.
Gausman is pitching to an ugly 5.14 expected ERA while surrendering a .280 expected batting average in 2024. Those rank in the 13th and ninth percentiles respectively. On top of that, the Blue Jays (former) ace ranks in the bottom 16% or worse in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel rate. That has me thinking this pesky Guardians lineup could pose a problem,
Not many expected Cleveland to be good this season, let alone be 20 games over .500 on June. 14. As always, they are led by All-Star Jose Ramirez, but breakouts from players like David Fry and Steven Kwan has added some much-needed depth to it.
The Guardians rank 12th in OPS and 11th in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season. But when I say pesky, I mean pesky. Cleveland has the fourth-highest swing rate, but the second-lowest K-rate.
Meanwhile, Cleveland counters Gausman with left-hander Logan Allen, who is having a rough second season at the big-league level. The 25-year-old has a 5.17 xERA and is giving up a .275 xBA to opponents.
Now, the Jays’ bats have been inconsistent outside of basically Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Danny Jansen, but guys like Justin Turner and Bo Bichette appear to be turning things around, and if they can’t get things going against a guy like Allen, the problems may be worse than feared.
I’m betting they figure things out enough to help send this one Over the first five innings total.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+138 at PROLINE+)
Guerrero was given the day off in the Blue Jays 5-4 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday, and he still almost saved his team’s skin, hitting a missile with two on and two out in the bottom of the ninth. Unfortunately, it was hit directly at the Brewers center fielder.
Despite going 0-fer in the series against the Brewers, Vladdy’s turnaround has been one of the more promising developments of this Blue Jays’ season. Guerrero is hitting .331 with a .881 OPS since May 5, which includes six doubles, four dingers, and 19 RBI.
Our Covers Prop Projections have Vladdy at 0.7 RBI for tonight's matchup against the Guardians, and we have it as a five-star play.
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Guardians vs Blue Jays odds
Guardians vs Blue Jays live odds
Guardians vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-200) | Toronto -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Cleveland +105 | Toronto -125
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-110) | Under 8.0 (-110)
Guardians vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup as -125 home favorites and have seen the early action, moving to the -140 range.
- There is some value in playing the Guardians' moneyline considering the edge in starting pitching is not as big as it looks on paper.
- The total hit the board at an even 8.0 and that's where it remains as of Friday afternoon.
- The Blue Jays have generally been an Under team and are 29-38 O/U this season, but that's been because of solid starting pitching, something that hasn't been a given with Gausman this season.
Guardians vs Blue Jays trend
The Over is 10-3 when Kevin Gausman starts for the Blue Jays this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Blue Jays
Guardians vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, 6-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Ohio, Sportsnet |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Logan Allen (6-3, 5.57 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (5-4, 4.01 ERA) |
Guardians vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Guardians vs Blue Jays weather
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