Our MLB best bets for May 5 start with another fade of a struggling squad, as well as banking on runs in the Bronx, despite Jacob deGrom taking the mound.
See why our expert MLB picks love the value of these two plays at Polymarket — plus the Tigers, who are also undervalued as well.
- UPDATE: Added Jon Metler's best bet.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: TEX/NYY o8.5 |
+100 |
 Joe Osborne: CHW ML |
+104 |
 Neil Parker: CHW/LAA NRFI |
-102 |
 Jon Metler: DET ML |
-150 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Rangers/Yankees Over 8.5
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
The hitting conditions at Yankee Stadium are prime for runs, with 17 mph winds blowing out to left field and THE BAT projecting over 10 runs in this matchup. The fair price on Over 8.5 sits around -130. Jacob deGrom is always a concern, but he’s still working on a ~90-pitch leash, and the New York Yankees just saw him on April 28. On the other side, Elmer Rodriguez had an inefficient outing vs. the Texas Rangers last week — and could be in trouble again, especially with a familiarity edge for hitters on both sides.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: White Sox moneyline
Price: 49¢ (+104) at Polymarket
I don't think the Los Angeles Angels should be favored over anyone right now. After a promising start to the season, they've lost 13 of their last 15 games! Over the last two weeks, LA ranks 25th in OPS and 27th in bullpen ERA, while the Chicago White Sox sit in the top eight in both categories and have the edge on the mound tonight. Erick Fedde has been solid with a 3.24 ERA, while the Angels turn to youngster Sam Aldegheri, who's been rocked for a 7.77 ERA in AAA this season — and a 6.35 ERA in limited MLB action across the last three years.
Neil Parker's expert pick: White Sox/Angels NRFI
Price: 51¢ (-102) at Polymarket
White Sox starter Erick Fedde has held opposing hitters to a minuscule .385 OPS in the opening frame and pitched a scoreless first in three of his four starts, including last time out against these Angels. Los Angeles counters with lefty Sam Aldegheri, and he’ll have the benefit of the Chicago lineup seeing him for the first time. So, while Aldegheri’s MLB and Triple A numbers are nothing to write home about, the Pale Hose sport a .231 batting average in the first frame and score in the first inning at a league-average 28.57% rate.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Tigers moneyline
Price: 60¢ (-150) at Polymarket
Losing Tarik Skubal for months was a tough blow for the Detroit Tigers, but this is exactly why they brought in Framber Valdez — to stabilize the rotation — and his opportunity to step in as the ace begins tonight against the Boston Red Sox. The Tigers are trading at 60 cents, while I make them closer to 64 cents, leaving a clear edge. Brayan Bello will do the bulk of the pitching for Boston, and he’s struggled badly against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .414 average and a 1.313 OPS. That’s a major concern against a Tigers lineup loaded with left-handed bats like Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Colt Keith. Boston will try to offset that with left-hander Jovani Moran as an opener, but that wrinkle is already baked into the projection.
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Reds +1.5 | -145 |
| Read analysis in our Reds vs. Cubs predictions | |
| Mariners ML | -125 |
| Read analysis in our Braves vs. Mariners predictions | |
| Brewers ML | -110 |
| Read analysis in our Brewers vs. Cardinals predictions | |
| Dodgers/Astros u8.5 | -115 |
| Read analysis in our Dodgers vs. Astros predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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