A spot in the Championship Series is on the line as the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 5 tonight, and I've identified my best White Sox vs. Guardians home run props for the final contest of this series.
Two Cleveland bats headline my White Sox vs. Guardians predictions.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Oct. 10.
White Sox vs Guardians home run props for tonight
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Probability |
|---|---|
 Jose Ramirez |
13% |
 Colson Montgomery |
14% |
| Jo Adell |
14% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 392.46x |
Home run prediction: Jose Ramirez
Play up to 20%.
Jose Ramirez has hit just one home run in this series, but three of his postseason hits have been for extra bases, posting a .400 ISO.
Ramirez is consistently getting under the baseball with a 58.3% fly ball rate in the ALDS, and an impressive 58.3% hard-hit rate overall. The slugger will face Sean Burke tonight, who has already allowed three homers in the postseason in just two appearances.
Ramirez will clutch up in the series decider.
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: TBS
Home run prediction: Colson Montgomery
Play up to 18%.
Colson Montgomery is coming off a career year where he clubbed 31 home runs, and I'm eyeing him to step up in Game 5. The shortstop has one bomb in six playoff contests so far while batting .263.
The underlying metrics are very promising for a long ball tonight. Montgomery has put 50% of his contact in the air in the postseason, and he's consistently squaring up the baseball, posting a 60% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate.
Facing Gavin Williams is not easy, but after a 2-for-4 performance in Game 4, Montgomery could make some noise here.
Home run prediction: Jo Adell
Play up to 20%.
The Guardians added Jo Adell largely for his power. He's yet to leave the yard this postseason, but Adell was inches away from a homer in Game 1 and owns a respectable .267 ISO in the series.
What I really like is Adell's 57.1% fly-ball rate and 92.4 mph average exit velocity. He's also posted a 57.1% hard-hit rate, giving him the combination of hard contact and consistent lift I'm looking for in a home-run prop.
The matchup with Burke also works in his favor. The right-hander has allowed a 15.8% barrel rate this postseason, creating a clear avenue for Adell's power to show up.
- HR picks: 20-107, -16.72 units
Best White Sox vs Guardians combo for Game 5
| Jose Ramirez |
Trade Now 392.46x |
| Colson Montgomery |
|
| Jo Adell |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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